"Unity of Fronts" resurfaces: is Iraq drifting into regional conflict?

Shafaq News/ Iraq's response to escalating regional tensions has been marked by two contrasting positions. On one hand, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has renewed its readiness to fight Israel, while on the other, the Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee has emphasized that any Iraqi involvement in foreign conflicts must be tied to an Arab or international decision, rather than a unilateral stance.

Observers speculate that the return of the "Unity of Fronts" concept could see Iraqi factions re-engage in the conflict, potentially leading to Israeli operations under a different pretext or even US collaboration against Iraq.

However, some argue that the idea of a "unity of fronts" is no longer feasible, given the setbacks faced by key forces in the so-called Axis of Resistance, such as Hezbollah, which has reiterated its commitment to the ceasefire agreement with Israel despite the return of Israeli strikes on Gaza and the onset of US airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen.

The term Unity of Fronts first entered common parlance in May 2021, following Hamas' battle in response to Israeli actions in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of Jerusalem. However, its practical application became more evident after Hamas launched the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Despite claiming to be unaware of Hamas' operation, leaders of the so-called Axis of Resistance opened fronts in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq to support Hamas in its battle with Israel over Gaza.

Now, the situation has returned to a similar state, with a fragile truce in Gaza collapsing due to renewed Israeli attacks. Simultaneously, large-scale US military operations have begun against the Houthi movement in Yemen, described as a response to threats against international maritime navigation, though US officials also noted these strikes were in retaliation for Iran's backing of the Houthis.

This regional escalation has also been taking place in Lebanon, where the Israeli military launched dozens of airstrikes in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa province response to three rockets fired from southern Lebanon, which were intercepted before reaching the Israeli settlement of Mettula along the border.

While Hezbollah denied any involvement in the rocket attack and reiterated its commitment to the November ceasefire, Israeli officials instructed the military to respond, holding the Lebanese government responsible for the incident.

With the region's fires potentially reigniting under Israeli decisions, the question remains: Will the "Unity of Fronts" return?

Preemptive War on the Horizon?

Mahdi Al-Kaabi, a senior leader in the prio-Iranian Al-Nujaba movement (Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba,) classified the US strikes in Yemen as "a preemptive war to protect Israel." In an interview with Shafaq News, he acknowledged that all scenarios, including a full-scale regional war, remained on the table.

"Islamic Resistance forces have been on full alert since the launch of the Al-Aqsa Flood battle, and are prepared for any escalation.”

Meanwhile, Iran continues to reject any negotiations with the US over its nuclear program under the threat of war, according to its officials. Amid the shifting landscape of regional alliances, a source told Shafaq News that the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Major General Ismail Qaani, conducted a brief and unannounced visit to Iraq, where he met with the leaders of the Coordination Framework, including the Popular Mobilization Forces.

The meeting, according to the source, concluded with an emphasis on Iraq’s commitment to neutrality, particularly about the Syrian conflict, while reinforcing the importance of maintaining security and preventing actions outside the state's framework.

Qaani reportedly conveyed an Iranian message to the Iraqi government, advising it to preserve its balanced stance and refrain from aligning with one party against another.

In the event of an Israeli strike on Iraq, the source added, "Iran will not remain silent and will support any stance or response from the Iraqi government or armed factions."

Adherence to International Norms

Member of the Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, Ali Nima Al-Bindawi, affirmed Iraq's commitment to international laws, stressing in an interview with Shafaq News that no political party or armed faction could undertake military operations without the government's official approval.

"Iraq will not involve itself in external conflicts but will focus on enhancing internal security and protecting its sovereignty," Al-Bindawi said, emphasizing that any participation in foreign battles must be "an Arab or international decision."

Dismissing talk of Iraq's independent involvement in foreign wars as "media consumption,” Al-Bindawi expressed confidence that Iraq would avoid becoming embroiled in regional conflicts, noting that Iraq's foreign policy had managed to shield the country from escalation. "

Iraq will not become an open arena for conflicts," he concluded, referring to the situations in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.

"Unity of Fronts": A Likely Return?

As Israeli and US military operations continue to intensify, security expert Ahmad Al-Sharifi believes that the region is heading toward regional clashes, increasing the likelihood of a return to "Unity of Fronts." He described the strategy as "a deterrent framework employed by Iran and its allies to prevent direct targeting."

Al-Sharifi noted that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani's government faces difficult choices, caught between its ties to the Coordination Framework — which granted the government parliamentary legitimacy —and the challenge of containing armed factions and preventing cross-border operations, a situation that could cause "political and military embarrassment with the US".

"The factions will not remain passive; they will opt for confrontation to support the Palestinian cause," Al-Sharifi predicted, suggesting that Israeli operations, potentially with US support, against Iraq could be forthcoming.

This aligns with recent reports from Shafaq News, which revealed that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth conveyed a stern warning to Prime Minister al-Sudani during a phone call last Sunday, stating that any involvement by Iraqi factions in US strikes on the Houthis in Yemen would trigger a swift military response against those factions within Iraq. Hegseth emphasized the urgency of resolving the issue of disarming the armed factions, a matter reportedly receiving significant attention from President Trump and his administration.

With military escalation ongoing in Gaza, Yemen, and Lebanon, and mounting indications that Iraqi armed factions may repeat its interference in the confrontation, analysts predict that the next phase may witness increased Israeli strikes against targets inside Iraq, particularly if factions act across borders. Such a development could mark a dangerous new stage in the region's volatile dynamics.

In the face of these challenges, Iraq’s government is confronted with a delicate balancing act between maintaining diplomatic equilibrium and navigating internal and external pressures, as the region edges closer to a new era of heightened tensions with potentially wider and more perilous repercussions.