Russia’s Lukoil turmoil deepens risks for Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oilfield

Shafaq News

A developing standoff at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oilfield is exposing the country’s strategic dependence on foreign operators and amplifying geopolitical risks, according to an analysis by the Middle East Forum Observer.

Russia’s Lukoil has declared force majeure on its operations after US and UK sanctions severely restricted its ability to function, triggering a disruption with significant implications for Iraq’s oil sector.

In the assessment, analysts note that Iraq’s reliance on foreign technical expertise has left it vulnerable: when a major international operator becomes entangled in sanctions, production and export systems come under strain, threatening fiscal stability. The West Qurna-2 field, where Lukoil holds a 75 percent stake, produces between 400,000 and 480,000 barrels per day—about nine percent of national output.

Concerns are growing that a potential Lukoil exit could undermine Iraq’s ability to sustain production. With operational control now in the hands of the state-run Basra Oil and Missan Oil companies, whose technical capabilities remain limited, output could fall by 20–30 percent over time.

Broader geopolitical repercussions also loom, as Baghdad searches for a workable mechanism to keep the field operating without breaching international sanctions.

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