Energy war nears Iraq: Oil infrastructure faces rising threat
Shafaq News
The expansion of strikes in the regional conflict to oil and gas facilities in Iran and Gulf countries has raised alarm over the possibility that such attacks could reach Iraq’s energy infrastructure, a concern shared by analysts and experts interviewed by Shafaq News. Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, which it shares with Qatar, have been among the most worrying developments for those involved in Iraq’s energy sector.
Since the launch of military operations on February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel have targeted Iranian energy infrastructure, including the South Pars field in Bushehr province, the country’s largest gas reserve. The strikes, described by analysts as a strategic turning point, caused significant damage to gas processing facilities.
Risks to Iraq
Political analyst Salah Boushi said the chance of the conflict extending to Iraq’s energy sector, particularly oil facilities, remains present as regional tensions intensify. “Iraq, given its geopolitical position, is a sensitive arena for escalation signals,” Boushi told Shafaq News, adding that any targeting of oil infrastructure would not only affect the domestic economy but also global energy markets.
He noted that the scenario is still influenced by several factors, including internal political balances, security coordination, and efforts by international actors to avoid a broader collapse in energy markets. However, he warned that escalation could increase insurance and transport costs and potentially disrupt production or exports, negatively impacting public revenues and economic stability.
Boushi added that Iraq could mitigate risks by strengthening security measures around critical infrastructure, enhancing coordination with international partners, and adopting proactive crisis management policies.
Read more: Wave of attacks on diplomatic missions risks isolating Iraq internationally
Armed Group Activity
“Iraq remains a potential arena for indirect confrontation, particularly through Iran-aligned armed groups that have targeted US bases and oil facilities, especially in the Kurdistan Region,” Researcher in strategic policy Kazem Yawar stated, adding that “All scenarios remain possible.”
In an interview with Shafaq News, Yawar noted that oil facilities and foreign companies, particularly US firms, had previously been targeted, especially in the Kurdistan Region, where exports were shipped via Turkiye’s Ceyhan port.
He added that Iran could expand its scope of targeting Iraqi oil interests if its own energy facilities continue to come under attack, suggesting that disrupting oil flows to global markets could be used as a pressure tool against the United States and its allies.
Limited Threat to Southern Fields
Oil expert Hamza Al-Jawahiri said it is unlikely that direct attacks would extend to southern Iraq, despite recent near-daily drone strikes targeting the Majnoon oil field in Basra province.
Al-Jawahiri noted that Iran had previously announced its intended targets in Gulf countries before carrying out attacks, and had excluded Iraq, which he described as not directly involved in strikes on Iranian facilities.
“Iraq is unlikely to be a direct target of Iranian attacks at this stage,” he said, while stressing that oil interests in the Kurdistan Region could remain vulnerable. He emphasized that the issue is primarily security-related rather than purely economic, adding that Iraq has not directly harmed Iranian economic interests.
Read more: Iran’s denial vs. proxy escalation: Iraq caught between diplomacy and battlefield reality
Beyond military risks, experts warn of growing economic threats. Energy expert Mazen Al-Saad said conflicts often begin with political objectives but end with economic consequences, with energy at the center.
“Iraq’s economy is heavily rent-based, relying on oil for about 90 percent of its revenues,” Al-Saad told Shafaq News, warning that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already disrupted export routes, noting that any prolonged halt or reduction in exports would have widespread consequences.
“Currently, there is no immediate funding crisis as revenues from previous shipments are still coming in, but within 60 days, the question will be how to sustain economic activity,” he said.
Al-Saad added that storage facilities in southern Iraq are nearing capacity, forcing the government to reduce production, warning that without broader economic planning beyond oil revenues, the country could face serious challenges.
