A warn of ISIS resurgence amid global distraction by Israel-Hamas Conflict
Shafaq News/ Amid the global focus on the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah conflicts, the Islamic State (ISIS) is quietly reconstituting itself in Syria and Iraq, warns Gregory Aftandilian in a recent report by The Arab Center Washington DC.
Aftandilian emphasizes that the terrorist group is exploiting the world's diverted attention to rebuild its capabilities, posing a renewed threat in the region. He highlights that US military commanders are already seeing signs of this resurgence, with the number of ISIS attacks expected to double by the end of the year.
According to Aftandilian, several factors contribute to the group's revival. Ethnic tensions between Kurds of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Arab tribes, poor economic conditions, and support from the Syrian and Turkish governments for anti-SDF elements have all played roles in ISIS's recent resurgence. Aftandilian also points to the thousands of unrepatriated foreign ISIS fighters and their families in SDF prisons as a continuing source of concern. He writes that these prisoners, along with recent ISIS attacks in Oman and Iran, should serve as a "wake-up call" for the international community.
In his analysis, Aftandilian notes that ISIS may have lost its territory but not its brand. He recalls that at its peak in 2014, ISIS controlled one-third of Syria and Iraq, establishing Raqqa as its de facto capital and seizing Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city. Aftandilian explains how the group amassed significant resources during this time, including US military hardware and over $1 billion looted from Iraqi banks, which it used to fund its operations. However, by 2017, a large international coalition led by the United States had retaken these territories, culminating in the fall of Baghouz, the last ISIS stronghold, in 2019. Despite this, Aftandilian stresses that ISIS never truly disappeared; thousands of fighters evaded capture and either blended in with local communities or retreated into the desert.
Aftandilian cites US Central Command (CENTCOM) data to illustrate the ongoing threat. "According to CENTCOM figures, IS conducted 153 attacks in Syria and Iraq in the first five months of this year. Charles Lister, a well-informed scholar of the organization, believes the number of attacks is actually much higher because the group no longer claims all of the attacks it undertakes. CENTCOM has long worked closely with the Kurdish-led SDF, Iraqi government forces, and Iraqi Kurdish militia forces to fight IS. The majority of such anti-IS operations this year have been carried out in Iraq (137 missions), which resulted in the deaths of 30 militants and the detention of 74 other fighters. In Syria, CENTCOM, in partnership with the SDF, conducted 59 missions, resulting in the deaths of 14 IS militants and the detention of 92 others. In addition, CENTCOM says it will continue to "remove key [IS] leaders from the battlefield" and target those who seek to "conduct external operations outside of Iraq and Syria" as well as those seeking to break fellow members out of prisons."
Aftandilian details the troubling signs of ISIS's growing capabilities, pointing out that US military officers on the ground have observed "the movement of men, weapons, and equipment" by ISIS, indicating an increase in the group's operational capacity. Aftandilian also highlights attempts by ISIS to free jailed fighters, including a significant prison break in Hasakah, Syria, in 2022. He warns that prison camps housing ISIS families, particularly the al-Hol camp, have become breeding grounds for radicalization, with children being indoctrinated with the group's extremist ideology.
Moreover, Aftandilian discusses the broader regional dynamics contributing to ISIS's resurgence. He notes that the group has taken advantage of the increased ethnic strife between Arab tribes and the Kurdish-led SDF, which has been exacerbated by the Syrian regime and supported by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Additionally, Aftandilian points out that Turkish airstrikes on SDF positions have further weakened the group's ability to combat ISIS effectively.
The report also touches on the delicate negotiations between the US and Iraqi governments regarding the future of US troops in Iraq. Aftandilian explains that while there were discussions about withdrawing most US forces by next September, the talks were postponed due to the escalating threat from ISIS and pro-Iran militias. He suggests that a premature US military withdrawal could jeopardize anti-ISIS operations, leaving the SDF vulnerable and undermining efforts to contain the terrorist group.
In conclusion, Aftandilian warns that “the international community must do a better job in dealing with imprisoned IS fighters and their families and not postpone the issue. It should also do what it can to help rebuild the partially destroyed cities from the anti-IS campaign, as poor economic conditions feed into IS's recruitment drive. The last thing the troubled Middle East region needs is a fully resurgent Islamic State once again controlling large segments of territory and people with its highly dangerous ideology and methods."
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Shafaq News Agency
