OPEC+ delays 2027 oil capacity review
Shafaq News- Baghdad
OPEC+ has delayed a review of members’ 2027 oil production capacity after the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted expansion projects across the Middle East, Reuters reported on Friday, citing two sources close to the matter.
Originally due by the end of September, the assessment is now expected to be completed by mid-November, according to one source. The findings will establish how much crude each member can sustainably produce and serve as a reference for setting 2027 production baselines.
The war has disrupted expansion projects in several OPEC+ countries, complicating estimates of future output. Some members have also yet to provide the information required for the process, although the Reuters sources did not identify them.
US petroleum consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton is evaluating participating countries except Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, which are under US sanctions. Its findings are expected to reach OPEC ahead of the alliance’s next group-wide meeting later in November. Lower sustainable capacity could result in smaller allocations, while producers that have expanded output potential could seek higher baselines.
The process is particularly important for Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest crude producer, which has long argued that its current quota does not account for increased capacity. Government sources told Shafaq News in June that Baghdad was seeking a higher allocation and had considered leaving OPEC, although the Oil Ministry denied any plan to withdraw and reaffirmed Iraq’s commitment to the organization.
Crude sales generate roughly 90% of Iraq’s state revenue, leaving public finances highly exposed to output restrictions and disruptions along export routes. Around 93% to 95% of the country’s oil exports normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained almost entirely closed since the regional war began in February 2026.
Baghdad has also repeatedly exceeded its OPEC+ ceiling and submitted compensation plans to offset excess production, an issue it shares with Kazakhstan. The dispute has gained greater significance as Iraq seeks to recover revenue lost during months of export disruption while negotiating future production limits in an unsettled oil market.
Leaving OPEC would free Iraq from the group’s production limits, although withdrawals remain relatively rare. Angola exited in early 2024 following a quota dispute, after Qatar in 2019, Ecuador in 2020, and Indonesia in 2016, while the UAE withdrew in 2026.
Read more: No exit but Hormuz: Iraq's economic vulnerability exposed
