Shafaq News
The United States is moving to control global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid its war with Iran, a strategy that could reshape regional dynamics and push Tehran toward structural breakdown, political analyst Frank Musmar told Shafaq News.
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After nearly a month of Operation Epic Fury, with no truce in place and shipping through the strait disrupted, US deployments continue to expand. Amphibious forces led by USS Tripoli, USS New Orleans, and USS San Diego have entered the Arabian Sea alongside Marine units, special forces, and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division. A second formation led by USS Boxer has departed San Diego. US Central Command says roughly 50,000 personnel are now deployed in the Middle East, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group.
According to Musmar, that buildup is not just about firepower, but also positioning. Kharg Island handles around 90 percent of Iran's oil exports, and the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption. Washington is working to control these chokepoints, particularly to restrict oil flows to China, as part of a broader strategy that extends well beyond any temporary ceasefire, he added.
As a result, Brent crude has climbed from around $70 before the war to above $100, peaking near $126, in what the International Energy Agency described as one of the largest supply shocks in modern oil markets. Musmar argued that President Donald Trump's shifting ceasefire deadlines –extending a March 21 ultimatum to April 6, citing progress in talks– were calibrated in part to manage those price swings. Tehran, however, denied any negotiations were taking place and described the move as an attempt to manipulate energy markets.
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Inside Iran, leadership losses and operational decentralization are straining command structures, with Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, acknowledging that some units are now operating under decentralized authority. Musmar argued these dynamics could drive a deeper structural breakdown.
Regionally, the conflict has revived discussions around collective maritime security, including what Musmar described as an "Arab NATO" concept, alongside efforts to secure transit through the strait and develop alternative export routes.
“Taken together, these trends point toward a potential reordering of energy control and regional influence, with Iran's leverage over global shipping likely to weaken under sustained pressure,” Musmar said.
For Shafaq News, Mostafa Hashem, Washington, D.C.