Shafaq News

Iraq’s water crisis is intensifying, pushing the nation to the edge of severe scarcity with few solutions in sight. A sharp decline in river flows from neighboring countries, combined with years of climate change and ineffective government strategies, has left the Tigris and Euphrates struggling to meet Iraq’s needs.

According to the Ministry of Water Resources, strategic water reserves have plunged to their lowest level in 80 years — dropping from a typical 18 billion cubic meters at the start of summer to barely 10 billion this year.

For decades, Iraq’s water challenges simmered quietly, but now the situation has reached alarming proportions. Rising temperatures and diminished precipitation could slash freshwater availability by an additional 20% by 2035, threatening nearly a third of currently irrigated land. Desertification is accelerating, and as of 2022, roughly 3,000 families across eight provinces had been displaced by drought and environmental degradation.

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In early November, Iraq and Turkiye signed an implementation mechanism for a framework water cooperation deal under caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein described it as “one of the sustainable solutions” to Iraq’s water crisis, calling it “the first of its kind” in bilateral history. Turkish officials pledged to release one billion cubic meters of water while assuring that Turkiye’s 90-billion-cubic-metre reserves would remain unaffected.

Yet experts and former lawmakers warn that the deal offers little more than assurances. Ibtisam Al-Hilali, a former member of the parliamentary Agriculture, Water and Marshlands Committee, dismissed the agreement as transactional rather than sovereign. “The agreement contains no binding conditions on Ankara,” she emphasized. “It’s essentially ‘oil for water.’ Turkish companies will build and manage the dams, while Iraqi firms capable of executing such projects remain sidelined.”

Al-Hilali stressed that the deal remains unimplemented, cautioning that continued low rainfall could push Iraq into severe drought. “The only solution,” she insisted, “is to cut commercial ties with Turkiye to force it to grant Iraq its water share.”

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Thaer Mukhif Al-Jubouri, another former parliamentary Water Committee member, reinforced these concerns, noting that discussions with Ankara considered Iraq’s water needs — including population, daily consumption, and industrial and agricultural demand — but failed to translate into enforceable commitments. “The solution begins with a prime minister who prioritizes water as a matter of national security,” he stressed.

Water and agricultural expert Tahseen Al-Mousawi criticized the framework agreement as “unjust.” It does not define Iraq’s water shares or revisit previous accords. Instead, he explained, it focuses on constructing four regulatory dams to capture rainwater and seasonal flows, rather than dams reliant on Turkish releases.

Iraq’s per capita freshwater share has fallen below 1,000 cubic metres per year — a level considered severe water stress globally — signaling full-blown shortages that threaten drinking water, agriculture, and industry.

Warning of potential “water catastrophes” by summer 2026 if current policies persist, Al-Mousawi highlighted that the Tigris and Euphrates are at historically low levels, and Turkiye has offered no guarantees regarding water releases.

Al-Hilali argued that the agreement reinforces Iraq’s vulnerability. Turkish companies manage the dams entirely, funded through Iraqi oil sales. “It’s a commercial transaction, not a sovereign safeguard,” she criticized, highlighting the government’s failure to defend farmers and citizens amid mounting shortages.

The problem is compounded by long-standing environmental degradation. Agriculture consumes more than 80% of Iraq’s freshwater, and outdated irrigation methods, including surface irrigation and unlined canals, cause up to 60% of water losses through evaporation or seepage.

Pilot projects using drip and sprinkler irrigation show that water use could be halved while crop yields increase by up to 40%. To conserve water, cultivation areas were reduced from 2.5 million dunams last year to 1.5 million dunams this year — a 40% reduction.

The ecological cost is staggering: marshlands and farmland are shrinking, desertification is spreading, and saltwater intrusion threatens soil quality, particularly in southern Iraq.

Read more: A century of promises: Iraq’s water diplomacy with Turkiye and Iran

The looming drought has become a matter of national security. Iraq relies on the Tigris and Euphrates for nearly 98% of its surface water. The crisis threatens millions of Iraqis, affecting agriculture, industry, and urban centers.

Al-Hilali criticized past government responses as insufficient, noting political compromises often came at the expense of farmers and citizens. Meanwhile, Al-Mousawi warned that without immediate reforms and an assertive water policy, Iraq could face catastrophic shortages in the near future.

Once treated as a peripheral issue, water management in Iraq now demands urgent attention. Experts emphasize that resolving the issue will require more than agreements signed on paper; it will require leadership willing to defend Iraq’s water rights and place them at the center of national priorities.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.