Shafaq News

Anticipation intensifies over the fallout from reactivating sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program, triggered by the so-called “snapback mechanism” after the failure of the Russia-China draft resolution to extend exemptions. This move gained backing from the European troika—France, Britain, and Germany—and the United States.

The reinstatement of these sanctions has sparked widespread concern across the region, especially in Iraq, given its tight economic and security ties with Tehran. Analysts warn that the renewed sanctions could set the stage for potential escalation against Iran, particularly amid its overt confrontation with Israel.

The sanctions target companies, organizations, and individuals directly or indirectly involved in Iran’s nuclear program or ballistic missile development. They impose bans on conventional arms sales and transfers to Iran. UN member states must also block access to banking and financial facilities that could support Iran’s nuclear or missile activities.

Sanctions Strike Iran’s Core Resilience

In Iraq, many acknowledge that the country will endure the harshest impact, facing intensified economic hardships linked to energy and trade with Iran, while becoming a frontline for indirect confrontation between Tehran and its adversaries.

Iranian affairs expert Saleh Al-Qazwini told Shafaq News that the return of sanctions “does not mark the end for Tehran but represents a recurring cycle of pressure,” recalling similar conditions Iran endured between 2010 and 2015 before the nuclear deal.

He added, “Iran is a wealthy state capable of enduring sanctions, but it will face greater political strain, especially through flight restrictions, limitations on delegations, and diplomatic relations.”

Conversely, Iranian affairs analyst Mahdi Azizi interprets the sanctions as part of a systematic “psychological campaign” reinforcing Israeli attacks. Azizi told Shafaq News, “The nuclear dossier is merely a pretext; the real objective is to cripple Iran’s defensive capabilities and sow internal division ahead of a potential military escalation.”

Iraq: Caught in The Eye of The Storm

Ihsan Al-Shammari, head of the Political Thinking Center, warned that Iraq “will emerge as one of the most affected countries after Iran due to its dependence on Iranian gas and electricity.” He predicted Iran would intensify its reliance on Iraqi territory to bypass sanctions, driving “increased dollar smuggling and heightened unofficial activity.”

Al-Shammari added that Iraq risks becoming a battleground for Iranian maneuvering amid escalations with Israel or pressure on Washington, concluding that Iran “will consolidate its political dominance and will not tolerate losing Iraq or weakening its allies within.”

Political science professor Haitham Hadi from the University of Exeter observed that the sanctions “could lead to turmoil within Iraq if it persists in its policy of dependence on Iran.” He outlined two possible paths for Iraq’s future: “Either deepen engagement with Iran or pursue economic and political independence,” a choice that will hinge on the upcoming elections scheduled for November 11, 2025.

Hadi also flagged the possibility of security or political disruptions delaying the elections, warning that ruling factions face a “critical dilemma” amid competing regional allegiances.

Ahmed Al-Yasiri, head of the Arab-Australian Center for Strategic Studies, voiced concern that the confrontation might spill into fragile arenas, especially Iraq, following the collapse of US-Iran negotiations after the recent escalation between Tehran and Tel Aviv.

He urged Iraq to pursue alternatives for gas and trade with Iran to insulate itself from the conflict. Al-Yasiri concluded that the key to the next phase lies in the Iraqi elections, “which could produce a leadership that steers Iraq toward neutrality and softens the sanctions’ impact—or, conversely, deepens the crisis.”

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.