Euphrates flood wave approaches Iraq: Water lifeline or emerging threat?
Shafaq News- Baghdad
After years described as the most severe drought in more than 90 years, the Euphrates River has once again taken center stage in Iraq and Syria.
This time, however, it is not as a source of chronic water scarcity, but as an unprecedented surge of water that swept across large parts of its basin in eastern Syria before beginning its journey south toward Iraqi territory, triggering debate between warnings of potential risks and talk of a rare water opportunity.
According to Ali Al-Hamad, Director of Public Relations at Syria’s Ministry of Local Administration and Environment, emergency teams faced “unprecedented challenges” along more than 200 kilometers of the river’s course. Speaking to Shafaq News, Al-Hamad said that floodwaters submerged bridges and key pumping stations, forcing authorities to carry out urgent evacuations using local warning systems.
He confirmed that around 60 water stations had gone out of service in the Shamiyah and Jazira regions, while vital bridges in Deir ez-Zor, including the Al-Mayadeen and Al-Asharah bridges, sustained damage. River ferry operations were also completely suspended at several locations.
In Iraq, Turhan Al-Mufti, adviser to the Iraqi prime minister on water affairs, told Shafaq News that the country possesses “irrigation systems capable of absorbing any volumes arriving through the Euphrates without causing floods.”
Al-Mufti explained that Haditha Lake has significant unused storage capacity, while Habbaniyah and Razaza lakes provide additional storage reserves. Excess water can also be diverted to the Tharthar Depression, and if those systems reach capacity, water can be directed to the marshlands.
“This year is a wet year, not a flood year,” Al-Mufti said, stressing that Iraq can absorb “any quantity, regardless of size,” with surplus water potentially directed toward the marshes to support the ecosystem.
At the same time, Al-Mufti emphasized that Iraq still requires careful water management, noting that climate change necessitates “a well-considered use” of resources despite improved water conditions compared with last year.
Iraq is considered among the five countries most affected by climate change, according to reports by the United Nations and international organizations.
International reports warn that Iraq will need more than $233 billion by 2040 to improve its water and environmental infrastructure, equivalent to about 6% of its annual GDP, while the country has lost approximately 30% of its agricultural land over the past three decades due to climate change.
Iraqi water expert Tahseen Al-Moussawi said that water releases arriving from Syria “have not exceeded 2,000 cubic meters per second,” adding that the flooding in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa was also linked to “encroachments and fragile infrastructure left behind by the war.”
In an interview with Shafaq News, Al-Moussawi said the water wave would enter Iraq through Al-Qaim and is expected to reach Haditha Dam within four days. He described the dam as Iraq’s “first line of defense,” noting that it has a storage capacity exceeding 10 billion cubic meters, while its current storage does not exceed 2 billion cubic meters.
Al-Moussawi added that Iraq possesses an interconnected storage network including Habbaniyah, Razaza, Tharthar, and the marshlands, capable of accommodating “billions of cubic meters.” However, he warned that water management still suffers from “significant waste and chronic poor planning.”
According to Al-Moussawi, “Based on estimates by water experts, Iraq needs 20 billion cubic meters of water, and it is expected that around 17 billion cubic meters will arrive from Syria in the coming days.” He also questioned the speed at which Turkish reservoirs have filled, saying it “raises questions about Iraq’s management of the negotiation file,” and called for the reactivation of agreements that determine Iraq’s share of Euphrates water.
For his part, Bayez Al-Zarari, a member of the Iraqi Parliament’s Agriculture, Water and Marshlands Committee, said Iraq is dealing with the incoming wave “scientifically and carefully,” stressing that Haditha Dam is prepared to receive the flows without risk.
Al-Zarari explained that the committee had taken measures including postponing agricultural water allocations until mid-June in order to increase strategic reserves, noting that the current priority is “storing water rather than releasing it.” He added that the committee relies on satellite data and international monitoring systems to track water movement, describing management of the current wave as an opportunity to enhance water security if utilized properly.
In press statements on Saturday, Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources confirmed that the country “has the full technical capacity to absorb any increase in releases,” noting that the situation remains under continuous monitoring and that current indicators “do not call for concern.”
By contrast, previous ministry data showed that Iraq had been experiencing one of its worst droughts since 1933, with water inflows dropping to only 27% of previous levels and water reserves declining to around 8% of storage capacity. Climate data indicate that temperatures in northeastern Syria have risen by around one degree Celsius, while average rainfall has declined by approximately 18 millimeters per month over recent decades. These changes have contributed to reductions in Euphrates and Tigris flows to nearly half their natural levels during drought years.
