Covid-19: worst case scenario outlined this winter

Shafaq news/ A particularly “challenging” winter could bring a second wave of coronavirus infections that leads to around 120,000 deaths in UK hospitals, twice as many as the first wave, according to an estimate of a reasonable worst-case scenario.

Assuming people acted as though the coronavirus were no longer a threat, the average number of people one person with the virus goes on to infect – known as the R number – could rise from the current estimate of between 0.7 and 0.9 to 1.7 by September, say scientists behind the report, which was requested by the UK government’s chief scientific officer, Patrick Vallance. This would lead to a second wave of infections, peaking in January and February next year.

“A peak of coronavirus infection in the winter could be more serious than the one we’ve just been through,” report chair Stephen Holgate at the University of Southampton, UK, told a press briefing. “We’re anticipating the worst, which is the best we can do.”

To build a picture of what might happen, the team considered the known impact of covid-19 on healthcare resources, combined with that of flu and other seasonal infections, during a time when health services are often overstretched. The researchers also looked to the experiences of other countries, particularly what happened to the R number in US states that have recently eased lockdown restrictions.

In any given year, deaths in the UK rise in the winter, due to the effects of cold weather and the impact of seasonal viruses like the one that causes flu. People tend to stay indoors and keep their windows closed during colder months, providing ideal conditions for the spread of infections.

A worst-case scenario would mean an unusually cold winter and a flu epidemic, on top of the backlog of routine care and elective surgery that has already been postponed as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.