UN reports earlier peak in global population amid declining birth rates
Shafaq News/ On Friday, the United Nations announced that the world population is expected to peak earlier than anticipated this century due to declining birth rates in several of the world's largest countries.
The UN's World Population Prospects report projects the global population to peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, down from 8.2 billion currently. It is then expected to decline to 10.2 billion by 2100, a 6% downward revision from a decade ago.
“In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions,” UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, Li Junhua, said in a statement.
In this context, he added, “The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption.”
Globally, women now have one child fewer on average than in 1990. In more than half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman has dropped below 2.1, the level needed to maintain a stable population without migration. The UN identified China, South Korea, Spain, and Italy as having “ultra-low” fertility rates.
As of 2024, the population has peaked in 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia. Their total population is expected to decrease by 14% over the next 30 years.
In nine countries, including Niger, Somalia, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, "very rapid growth" is expected, with the population projected to double between 2024 and 2054.
In 126 countries, such as the United States, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan, populations are anticipated to peak in the latter half of the century or beyond.
