Tehran-Ankara power struggle escalates over regional dominance

Shafaq News/ Turkiye and Iran’s geopolitical rivalry has escalated over the past three months, with both nations maneuvering for greater regional influence.

Firas Elias, a professor of political science at the University of Mosul and an expert in Iranian-Turkish affairs, told Shafaq News that while Turkiye and Iran have historically avoided direct confrontation, they have persistently worked to undermine each other’s positions in Iraq and Syria, noting that “deep-rooted distrust remains between the two nations, making Iran’s efforts to rebuild ties with Ankara increasingly difficult.”

Elias emphasized that Iraq will be the next battleground for Iranian-Turkish tensions. “Ankara is determined to remove the PKK from Iran’s sphere of influence. As Turkiye consolidates its position in Iraq and Syria, Iran faces a shrinking geopolitical footprint,” he explained.

Diplomatic clashes and military confrontations have shaped the two countries’ relations since January 2025. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan publicly criticized Iran’s “expansionist policies,” arguing that Tehran’s involvement in Iraq and Syria has been costly with little strategic gain. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei dismissed the claims, accusing Turkiye of ignoring US and Israeli involvement in regional instability.

Iran summoned the Turkish ambassador in February over Ankara’s military buildup in northern Iraq, particularly near Sinjar and Makhmur, where Iran-backed militias hold sway. Turkiye, in turn, summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires, denouncing Iranian-backed “destabilization efforts” in Iraq.

Tensions spiked by March after Turkish airstrikes targeted Iranian-aligned factions’ positions in Syria, prompting Tehran to accuse Ankara of “violating Syria’s sovereignty.” Meanwhile, Iran-backed groups in Iraq threatened retaliation against Turkish forces.

The recent SDF-Damascus agreement has weakened Iran’s influence in Syria, stripping it of a key bargaining tool, according to experts. The deal, announced Monday, coincided with Turkiye’s intensified military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria.