Erdogan should be very, very worried, Former Pentagon Official said

Shafaq News/ US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has been outspoken in his criticism of Turkey describing it as a “mutual concern for the United States and European countries.”

Turkey, a NATO ally has been in conflict with Washington recently for purchasing Russia’s S-400 air defense system, and for the rival claims to Mediterranean waters with Greece.

In its first statement, Biden Administration has called turkey to respect the European Court of Human Rights decision by releasing of Selahattin Demirtas and Osman Kavalla.

The US asks Turkey to respect fundamental rights and to find a quick and fair solution to the Kavalla and Demirtas cases.

“The only thing holding the relationship together for the last several years has been Trump’s personal relationship with Erdogan,” Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, told CNBC. “With Trump removed, Erdogan should be very, very worried.“ 

Based on his previous statements, it looks like there will be a tougher line from Washington. In an interview last January, Biden called Erdogan an “autocrat,” criticized his actions toward the Kurds. He also suggested the U.S. should support Turkish opposition leaders “to be able to take on and defeat Erdogan. Not by a coup, but by the electoral process.”  

Biden has pledged to recognize the Armenian genocide, a hugely contentious issue for Turkey and one which U.S. presidents have avoided acknowledging for a century. Amid the turmoil of World War I, as many as 1.5 million Armenian civilians were expelled or killed by what was then the Ottoman Empire. 

Still, Erdogan spokesman Ibrahim Kalin on Wednesday said Turkey believes it can have a “good and positive agenda” with a Biden administration, and called any punishment for its S-400 purchase “counterproductive.” 

Both the U.S. and Europe have become “increasingly frustrated” with Erdogan’s emboldened foreign interventions and “erratic” behavior toward allies and adversaries alike, said Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director at the at the Economist Intelligence Unit. 

“This is a dangerous path,” she said. “The incoming Biden administration is likely to take a much tougher stance on Turkey than Donald Trump has done.”

But that comes with its own set of risks to the U.S. — namely, that punishing an ally like Turkey only pushes it further into the arms of Russia. 

Turkey is “mega strategic” for the U.S. and Europe, stressed Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Management. Because of this, he expects that “Biden will work overtime to try and improve relations with Turkey and bring the country back into the Western fold.” 

“I think it is important to remember that the two biggest risks to the U.S. are China and Russia,” Ash said. ”‘Winning’ Turkey back from Russia would be a huge win for Biden, and I think they will focus on that.”