Earthquake Damage in Türkiye Estimated to Exceed $34 billion, WB

Shafaq News/ The World Bank (WB) estimated that the two massive earthquakes of February 6 caused about $34.2 billion in direct physical damages in Türkiye, the equivalent of 4% of the country’s 2021 GDP.

In its rapid damage assessment report released today, The World Bank also acknowledges that recovery and reconstruction costs will be much larger, potentially twice as significant and that GDP losses associated with economic disruptions will also add to the cost of the earthquakes.

Continued aftershocks will also likely add to this damage estimate over time, says the Report.

The two earthquakes have inflicted the heaviest damage in 11 provinces in southern Türkiye. These regions have some of the highest poverty rates in Türkiye and host more than 1.7 million Syrian refugees, almost 50% of the total Syrian refugee population in Türkiye. The Report explained.

The Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report also estimates that 1.25 million people have been temporarily homeless due to moderate to severe damage or complete building collapse. The report also highlights that 81% of the estimated damages occurred in Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Gaziantep, Malatya, and Adıyaman provinces, home to around 6.45 million people (about 7.4% of the total population of Türkiye).

The World Bank report pointed out that the direct damages to residential buildings account for 53% ($18 billion) of the total damage, with 28% of damage ($9.7 billion) in non-residential buildings (e.g., health facilities, schools, government buildings, and private sector buildings), and 19% of damage ($6.4 billion) related to infrastructure (e.g., roads, power, water supply).

The damage estimates in the Report do not include the broader economic impacts and losses for the Turkish economy or the cost of recovery and reconstruction, which could be significantly more than the direct damages and requires a more in-depth assessment.

For Syria, the World Bank has also undertaken a separate Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report to estimate direct physical damages to support the development of a roadmap for recovery and reconstruction. The Report is scheduled for release on February 28, 2023.