What's after the "Tango" dance in Iraq?

Shafaq News/ Washington’s initiated stances towards Al-Kadhimi’s government after it gained the parliamentary confidence, because is not a simple detail, as it reflects a clear American bet on two points: trying to make this government internally successful and to achieve agreements on outstanding files that guarantee responding to American expectations.

At first glimpse, the American blessing for Al-Kadhimi and his government raises optimism about what can be done in this sensitive stage in Iraq, but at the same time raises the level of challenge to work between the extent of “independence” that Al-Kadhimi can work with internally and what America expects from him.
Therefore, monitoring the series of positions issued by official American bodies, and media analysis from parties close to the circles of decision-making in Washington, which are provided with many reports of position assessments have a significant importance, because they largely reflect the priorities of American thinking towards the Iraqi file in general, in which Al-Kadhimi have to take into account after obtaining the Prime Minister position.
The cautions are many, for Al-Kadhimi realizes that the political settlement that took place in Baghdad and allowed him to gain the parliament confidence (after political forces that are linked to Iran supported him), resulted in a “tango dance” between Washington and Tehran. This is evidenced by the support obtained parliamentary from political forces linked to close relations with the Iranians.

Regardless of the accuracy of the American ambassador, Matthew Toller’s leaked massage, which was confirmed by Nouri Al-Maliki and Ayad Allawi, but Al-Kadhimi’s government is based on balanced elements between its American and Iranian parties, and its steps will be taken according to that, in case neither side makes an extreme move that leads to uncalculated (or calculated) consequences.

Washington certainly expects nothing less from Al-Kadhimi than to trim the Iranian role in Iraq, though it knows that he can’t distance himself totally from Iran and push matters into an explosive conflict, as “ Saddam Hussein’s “ model is no longer present between the two neighbors.

Although the congratulatory messages received by Al-Kadhimi from Americans focused on reforms, fighting corruption and promoting democracy, Washington would nevertheless want to see Al-Kadhimi’s government’ reassuring steps regarding Iran, for example, the American military’s presence in Iraq.

So perhaps for that, the US embassy in Baghdad stated, “the next strategic dialogue with the Iraqi government aims to reaffirm the value of the US-Iraqi partnership for the both countries, which was also confirmed by Al-Kadhimi’s office in a statement on the dialogue scheduled for next June.

Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, was the first American to congratulate Al-Kadhimi after gaining the parliamentary confidence, also informed him that he had extended Iraq a deadline of 120 days, for importing gas and electricity from Iran without imposing sanctions, clearly indicating that this initiative was aimed to create the conditions for this government to success.

This is a meeting point for Al-Kadhimi with Washington and Tehran, and a clear American initiative, which Iran has definitely understood, but Iran’s electric support is difficult to be a fundamental contention between the two sides. The disputed files are more complicated than that.

Pompeo tweeted after calling Al- Kadhimi, “now comes the urgent and hard work to implement the reforms that are demanded by the Iraqi people, I have pledged to help Al-Kadhimi to do this.”

It is known that Washington imposed strict sanctions on the Iranian energy sector in 2018, also threatened to punish any country that deals with Tehran in this field, but it granted Baghdad a series of temporary exemptions, the last of which was last week that lasted only 30 days, but this time it granted Baghdad 120 days. The American exemption allowed Iraq to import about 1400 megawatts of electricity and 28 million cubic meters (988 million cubic feet) of gas from Iran.

In the declared American situations, the embassy spoke of supporting Al-Kadhimi to fight the Corona epidemic, achieve victory over ISIS, provide humanitarian assistance and stabilize the displaced and the liberated areas. In return, the embassy demanded implementing urgent reforms and holding early elections to strengthen the democratic system.

It’s noteworthy mentioning that several political forces opposed the idea of early elections, the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) itself talked about a period of several months to that it can logistically organize new elections that may cost about a million dollars, at a time Iraq is suffering from a severe economic crisis.

Morgan Ortagus, spokesperson for the United States Department of State, stated to Sky News Arabia, “US will follow and watch how the Iraqi prime minister applies the reform measures demanded by the Iraqi people

The remarks of a member of the American president Donald Trump’s advisory board, Gabriel Soma to Shafaq news, outlined the nature of US aspirations and demands from Al-Kadhimi’s government after the exemption of sanctions that are related to electricity and gas resources from Iran, in order to support Al-Kadhimi in his mission to run the Iraqi government, and listed the demands as implement reforms, restrict weapons by the state and hold early elections.

It is known that the “ strategic dialogue “ between Baghdad and Washington will be launched next June, to cover the issues between the two sides including the nature and future of the US military presence in Iraq, after the Iraqi parliament voted demanding the withdrawal of US forces.

Washington will be represented by the Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, David Hale, it was not officially known if Al-Kadhimi would personally participate in the dialogue sessions, as he had just received a mountain of files to search through, though he is well aware that there’s a lot to fix in the relationship with the US, as it being described as a “dysfunctional partnership” by The Foreign Policy, as an American point of view.

The Foreign Policy lists a group of factors that justify the description of this partnership as dysfunctional, among them: security forces killed hundreds of demonstrators, Iran exploiting the Iraqi economy to circumvent US sanctions, Iraqi factions (some of them are on the US sanctions list for being supported by Iran) received financial support from the Iraqi government, and did not find accountable for attacking American buildings and bases in Iraq.

The Foreign Policy magazine noted, “Although Washington has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in economic and military assistance and has supported Iraq diplomatically hoping to turn it into a major partner in maintaining stability and security in the Middle East, though Iraq is heading to the wrong direction. Adding that the “strategic dialogue “is the last opportunity to change that direction and rescue the long-termed American-Iraqi partnership. Asking Washington to impose stronger conditions in return for American support, and to make Baghdad understand that it will lose a lot, unless it shows resistance to “the Iranian domination”.

The Americans will attend the dialogue sessions, armed with elements of power that enhances their position, this is not an easy task for Al-Kadhimi, for the Americans will put “ ISIS terrorism “file in front of him and remind him that Trump’s administration is seeking to provide 600 million dollars for training and arming the Iraqi security forces, and to secure 120 million dollars to support the Iraqi economy and other programs, including de-mining.

Washington is also Baghdad’s passing ticket to the international monetary fund, if the Iraqi and the world’s economic collapse continue. Therefore, Al-Kadhimi’s negotiation position will not be easy, for he fully understands that most of this aid can’t be replaced if Washington refrains from providing it.

Unless Washington sees an adequate Iraqi response to its demands, Trump’s administration will use the “oil sanctions” pressure card on Al-Kadhimi, as hinted by “the Foreign Policy”, after the Iraqi parliament’s embarrassing vote to demand the exit of US forces from Iraq.

About the US military presence, “The Foreign Policy “clearly hints at an unequivocal distinction of the American view of Baghdad and Kurdistan, also called for the necessity of preparing a plan to enhance the role of the US forces in Iraq to secure the safety of Kurdistan, for unlike the Iraqi government, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is very supportive of the American military presence.

The Foreign Policy elaborated, by stationing in Kurdistan, the US military can carry out necessary missions against ISIS, including in Syria, and with the reduced vulnerability of its forces without the broad protection measures it had to adopt in other regions of Iraq, Washington will be able to act flexibly in facing the risks that are posed by ISIS and Iran.

In total, the “strategic dialogue” negotiations will be hard in all aspects, while the Americans are waiting to monitor Al-Kadhimi’s steps regarding the future of the American forces. Keeping in mind Donald Trump’s statement days ago,” we spent 8 trillion dollars in the worst decision in history by going to the Middle East, as millions of people on both sides have been killed. “