The hidden riddles of Khamenei’s tweet

Shafaq News/A storm of Analysis and questions have arisen about the Iranian leader, Ali Khamenei’s tweet regarding the reconciliation between Al-Hasan ( Prophet Mohammad’s grandson ) and Muawiyah (he founder and first  caliph of the Umayyad Caliphate), whether this tweet paved the way for political developments behind the scenes with US, after many hints were grow about a sudden pacification between the two rivals.

The Persian tweet that was issued on the 9th of current month on the official website of the Supreme Leader of Iran, stated the following: “I believe that Imam Al-Hasan is the bravest character in the Islamic history, for he sacrificed his life and his position for the sake of the real interest, to achieve peace, protect Islam and the Qur’an and guide future generations“

Though Khamenei’s Arabic tweet was not identical to the Persian one, as he tweeted, “I congratulate everyone on the birth of Imam Al-Hasan Al-Mujtaba, whom the Prophet described as the embodiment of merit; it is important and great for the Prophet to name this blessed child.”

Whatever it was in the word "peace" that Khamenei referred to in the Persian tweet, it opened the doors of speculation, especially since the figure of Imam Al-Hasan in the Islamic history in general was a victim of political games practiced by Muawiyah bin Abi Sufyan and his son Yazid, to remove him from the caliphate of Muslims, and was a victim of the subservience of many when he tried to fight Muawiyah. In the end, Imam Al-Hasan Bin Ali favored the reconciliation and prevented shedding Muslims’ blood, in exchange for a political agreement in 41 AH (661 AD).

The tweet quickly recalled the sudden breakthrough in Iranian-American relations in 2015 during the era of US President Barack Obama, which resulted in a nuclear agreement. Where the Sultanate of Oman contributed to arrange away from the eyes of the media and political capitals in the region and the world.

Signs and facts, in relation to Iran itself, as well as in the US-Iran relations, are encouraging to say that things are happening behind the scenes.

Perhaps the most prominent of these signs, was the clear "tango dance" witnessed by the Iraqi politics with the election of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, in agreement with political forces linked to Tehran.

Some political readings can set the context of the American position on the Iranian missile strikes against American military bases in Ain al-Assad and others, after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at the beginning of 2020, which was characterized by being satisfied with the counting of losses, with a declined tone of threat by Donald Trump’s administration. 

It was an obvious indication of the American desire to "drink the bitter cup” and humbly submit to prevent a major escalation with the Iranians in the region. 

Other signs can be seen, including the American repeated offer to help Iran in combating Corona epidemic, despite Iran’s rejection.

There is also the extended exception Washington has granted Iraq to receive gas and electricity from Iran.

Many still remember how Trump tweeted thanking Iran when prisoners were exchanged last December, saying "Thank you Iran for a very fair negotiation .. Look, we can reach a deal together."

These possibilities reinforce the suffocating economic situation that Iran is going through due to US sanctions that paralyzed Iran’s oil exports, while Coronavirus has crippled the domestic economic. 

On the other hand, Trump is striving to score victories in his foreign policy, perhaps by boosting his deteriorating political balance, on the eve of the presidential elections on next November 3rd. 

Meanwhile, Israel’s speculations revolve around the Iranian military presence in Syria, which is among the most prominent files of dispute with the US administration, those speculations talk about the largest Iranian withdrawal from Syria since 2011. However, it was not possible to confirm this from independent sources. But “Jadeh Iran” website which is a site close to the decision-making circles in Tehran, has quoted sources in Damascus and Tehran saying that, “ Iran did not change its work mechanism in Syria, from Deir Al-Zur to Aleppo to the south at the border with the invaded territories. Rather, it confirms the information about Tehran establishing its bases and strengthening its sensitive headquarters in Syria. "

However, despite the tension that dominated the relations between Tehran and Washington for decades, and their clash at times, Henry Kissinger’s “ping-pong diplomacy" has been governing many aspects of their relationship.

The negotiations of the Sultanate of Oman - then Vienna at a later time - that were sponsored by the former US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, were nothing but an affirmation of the maneuvering policy between them, to obtain the greatest gains from each other,  at the expense of the other party, and sometimes at the expense of regional allies.

That’s why Khamenei’s tweet takes on a greater meaning because it recalled his famous statement in the American-Iranian negotiation five years ago, when he said, "Another feature of diplomatic skill is heroic flexibility, of which the peace of Imama Al-Hasan is one of the greatest historical examples."

The term "heroic flexibility” signaled his blessing for the secret negotiations with Barack Obama’s administration, as some see the term "peace" in his new tweet as a possible prelude to fixing the diplomatic rupture with Washington since Donald Trump tore up the nuclear agreement completely two years ago. 

It is known that the nuclear agreement that Trump canceled and then Iran began to gradually abandon its commitment to its provisions, creating a global diplomatic crisis, because of the presence of the European Union, Russia and China who guaranteed the agreement. 

It seemed that the American-Iranian relations’ horizon was blocked after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo set a list of 12 conditions that Tehran must abide by, in exchange for normalizing its relations with Washington.

That horizon became darker after the British and Americans started pressuring Iran’s oil shipments, the lifeblood of Tehran, and then the Iranian response, by harassing oil shipments in the Gulf, to the bombing of oil installations in Saudi Arabia.

 That horizon became even darker after the Americans assassinated Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, then the Iranian missile retaliation against American military bases in Iraq. 

However, this crisis did not erupt. Rather, the threads of understandings circulated around Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s government, which one of his first government’s activities was to meet the American and Iranian ambassadors in Baghdad, to call them to desist from settling scores in Iraq. 

Was it another sign that Al-Kadhimi picked to reinforce the gates of pacification that were expressed by Khamenei's tweet? For he decided to return Lieutenant-General Abd Al-Wahab Al-Saadi to the Iraqi Special Operations Forces, especially after reports of Iranian factions exerting "pressure" to remove Al-Saadi as well as security and military officials considering their proximity to Washington.

Haneen al-Qaddou, a member of Al-Fateh alliance, confirmed to Shafaq News Agency that "the escalation with the US is currently not in the interest of the forces opposing the American presence in Iraq, for Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and his government have good relations with Washington."

Explaining that, "the economic, security, health, and other conditions that Iraq is going through will push the American presence opposing forces to accept the reality and the new relations with Washington during the next stage."

The coming days will reveal the hidden possibilities, and whether the edgy policies pursued by America and Iran are nothing more than a prelude for negotiations and settlements.

In the end, after all, Khomeini did surprise the world when he announced his sudden agreement to a ceasefire with Iraq to end the absurd war that lasted for eight years between the two countries.