Assassinations, Demonstrations, Pandemics, Collapses.. What else 2020 has in its sleeve?
Shafaq News/ The first six months of 2020 have been marked by major events in Iraq, the region and the world which has its effects later. From the outbreak of COVİD-19 in the world to the assassination of Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis in Iraq to the killing of the African-American George Floyd in America and the violent outburst of popular protests against President Donald Trump.
During the first six months, mankind witnessed several stormy events. Ironically, the New Year indicators began from the first month with serious events that spread a pessimism atmosphere around the world about what the rest of the New Year might bring as long as it began with assassinations, disasters and crises.
These events have had significant repercussions both in the countries where they took place or in the impact of their geographical and global surroundings, as well as the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic which crippled the economic life in most countries of the world and may have pushed the world to a stage of a great economic depression similar to the one that hit the world 90 years ago.
Soleimani - Al-Muhandis’s assassination
Iraq witnessed the first and most serious events that raised concerns in the country and the region as a whole with the possibility of a regional-world war, after the Americans assassinated the commander of Al-Quds Force (part of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC) Qasem Soleimani and deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization forces (PMF) in Iraq Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, in an airstrike near Baghdad International Airport.
The assassination took place on January 3rd, two days after demonstrators in the vicinity of the U.S. embassy decided to break up their sit-in in front of it, which began on the last day of 2019 in protest against U.S. raids targeting PMF sites in Iraq and Syria that claimed dozens of victims. The sit-in was resolved at the request of the Prime Minister at the time, Adel Abd Al-Mahdi. The United States was forced to use Special Forces from one of its bases in Kuwait to strengthen the protection of the embassy in Baghdad.
It is true that the demonstrators withdrew and evacuated the tents set up in the proximity of the embassy on January 1st, President Trump carried out the assassination of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis two days later; saying that the Iranians are responsible for killing and injuring Americans in a rocket attack on a U.S. military base.
A major turnaround took place as the Iraqi parliament approved a resolution on January 5th calling on the government to “end the presence” of the foreign forces in Iraq and ensure that it does not use its territory, airspace and waters for any reason, while Moqtada Al-Sadr and other Shiite leaders have called for the expulsion of Americans from Iraqi territory.
The situation deteriorated further on January 8th with Iran's decision to settle the score by bombing “Ayn Al-Asad” base in Iraq; later revealed with Pentagon data - contrary to Trump's statement - that it had caused “Brain concussions” in more than 100 U.S. soldiers.
The whole region has been caught up in the heat of tension, with Iran’s IRGC threatening to strike any military base in the region from which the Americans are launching attacks on Iran, including in the Gulf countries or Israel. Soon, the tension began to ease; with U.S. re-deploying and evacuating military bases in Iraq without a complete withdrawal.
Bloody demonstrations A new government
Coinciding with these dangerous events, the Iraqi street was boiling. A new dimension was added to this hot file as some of Iraq's demonstrations turned into protest movements against both the American and Iranian influences. Clashes between groups of protesters and gunmen believed to be linked to Shiite factions claimed dozens of victims in several cities and provinces.
However, the "better living conditions demanding" demonstrations continued in 2020, and there was a remarkable development in the protest movement on January 21st after demonstrators blocked Baghdad-Babel international road; violent clashes with security forces ended after the deadline they gave the political class to form a new independent government away from the influence of parties and sects.
The political forces have been trying to establish a new government since November when Adel Abd Al-Mahdi resigned and continued to conduct government duties. But Mohammed Allawi, who was chosen by President Barham Salih in February; apologized on March 1st for forming a government amid the political chaos in Baghdad, which also wiped out the chances of the second-candidate, Adnan Al-Zurfi in early April.
The Iraqi political solution doors were dismantled with the nomination of Barham Salih to the intelligence chief Mustafa Al-Kadhimi on April 9th to form a new government that won the parliamentary confidence on May 7th, ending five months of political paralysis in Baghdad.
COVİD-19 pandemic
Coronavirus (COVİD-19’s) first appearance in Wuhan, China, was officially recorded in late 2019, but the first officially recorded death was on January 11th, when Beijing declared a state of emergency on January 24th and the world's countries began to follow its path.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has waited until January 30th to declare a global threat emergency, which has been criticized for being delayed in the initiative, which permitted the pandemic to affect 8 million people and kill more than 400,000 people up until this moment.
But Iraq, which has been struggling on multiple no less dangerous fronts, officially registered the first infection of COVİD-19 in Najaf on February 24th, 2020, while the capital Baghdad was infiltrated on February 27th, then the pandemic spread uncontrollably in all the country.
It was a new challenge for Iraqis, as the authorities announced a curfew in many provinces and cities to contain the pandemic and prevent it from spreading, but by June the number of infections reached more than 20,000, and the authorities in Kurdistan imposed strict preventive measures, from preventing movement between cities to social distancing and curfew.
ISIS’s reappearance before the Iraqi-American strategic dialogue
Voices rose to warn from ISIS’s bloody return, which was demonstrated In February and the months that followed as the number of terrorist operations carried out by this organization escalated dramatically, exploiting the security gap between Kurdistan and the rest of Iraq.
While Adel Abd Al-Mahdi was still conducting business; and two days before Al-Kadhimi was tasked with forming the government, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on April 7th, for a strategic dialogue between Washington and Baghdad in June 2020, saying that "all strategic issues Between our two countries will be on the agenda, including the future presence of the U.S. forces”.
The call for this dialogue and then its convening on June 10th, 2020, carried many important aspects, first after relations between Washington and Baghdad entered a period of turmoil since the assassination of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis, and secondly, after Iraq’s economic immunity was revealed, due to the accumulation of previous policies and practices, and by the economic stagnation caused by COVİD-19 in Iraq and the world.
Historical oil prices collapse
For the first time in history, the price of the U.S. oil barrel fell below zero due to the repercussions of the global lockdown after the outbreak of the COVİD-19 pandemic.
Not only that, the oil war between Moscow and Riyadh crushed the oil barrel’s price and dropped it from above 50 dollars to 33 dollars.
This was followed by a continued collapse in OPEC basket’s oil prices which touched the threshold of 20 dollars, this directly affected Iraq, where the economy depends entirely on oil and gas, and with the absence of major investments, the collapse reflected on the Iraqi treasury. Baghdad decided to cut Kurdistan’s employees’ salaries, which was already suffering from economic problems as a result of the long-termed dispute over the oil exports.
OPEC oil countries, in particular, were relived after the activation of OPEC+ production cut plan, prices jumped and touched 30 dollars, but this is not enough for Iraq as it priced the barrel of oil in its annual budget as 40-50 dollars, and is now critically suffering from the provision of its employees' salaries.
What happened in the rest of the world?
-Not far from the chaos of 2020, the first half of this year has been stifling to Iran, which has been focal of COVİD-19 pandemic in the Middle East; adding to the economic crisis and the collapse of its domestic currency as a result of sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the lack of dialogue between Tehran and Washington.
- Another event that can be observed in the context of the 2020 record so far is the announcement of the death of Sultan Qaboos bin Said on January 10th, who has ruled Oman since 1970 and was one of the oldest leaders in the region and the world. Sultan Qaboos led Oman among the storms of the region and was known for his controversial positions and his country's secret diplomacy, which opened various channels with U.S., Iran, Iraq and Israel.
- The "Deal of the Century", which Trump kept talking about since 2019 to settle the Palestine-Israel conflict, he announced its details on January 28th ignoring the Palestinian anger over its provisions, especially since it legitimizes Israel's occupation of Jerusalem and some areas of the west bank; and extinguishes any Palestinian hope of a possible return from the exile.
- Another historical event recorded in the first six months of 2020 is the enforcement of the Brexit agreement (agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union (EU) and Euratom; the European Atomic energy Community) on January 31st, a development that has immediate implications on the EU's status and strength, as well as on UK's relations with its European surroundings.
- On the Lebanese side.. Since Saad Hariri resigned and Hassan Diab was appointed to form the new Lebanese government, Lebanon entered a new phase of economic collapse that Lebanon had not even experienced in the days of civil war. Diab's success in forming his government raised hopes that the political class, which had tightened its grip on the country since the end of the civil war 30 years ago, or the so-called "Hariri phase", could begin to collapse. But the continued collapse of the lira and the slow handling of corruption fuelled popular discontent and sent protesters back into the streets in more than one region.
-In a parallel context, Syria witnessed a change in the Prime Ministership, where Imad Khamis was relieved of his post, and water resources minister, Hussein Arnos was appointed instead. The government reshuffle came on June 11th, after the country's economic situation was exacerbated by the nine years of war, the lack of resources, and U.S. sanctions.
The most recent was "Caesar's Law", which tightens sanctions on the Syrian economy and places severe obstacles to Syria's foreign dealings, which will certainly affect the mutual commercial interests between Damascus and Baghdad.
In recent weeks, the Syrian pound has collapsed to record levels against the dollar, falling to 3,000 SYP from 900 SYP at the end of 2019, from only about 46 SYP before the start of the war.
- If the events of 2020 were not yet convincing in its severity and seriousness.. The killing of the African-American George Floyd on May 25th has crowned the world's most explosive cause. More than 50 states protested against the crime that was committed by a policeman; soon turned into a fireball that rocked the White House and shook president Trump's confidence. On the eve of November’s presidential elections.
