Syria's post-Assad landscape: The battle for power and the future of a fractured nation

Shafaq News/ The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government marks a turning point in Syria’s long and brutal conflict. After over a decade of civil war, the country now faces an uncertain future as opposition groups, Kurdish factions, government remnants, and international powers maneuver to fill the vacuum of authority. This moment of upheaval is reshaping the political and military landscape, raising questions about Syria’s unity, regional stability, and the strategies of global actors vying for influence in one of the Middle East's most fractured terrains.

HTS Gains Momentum

Before launching their offensive on November 27, HTS controlled roughly half of Idlib province in northwest Syria, along with limited territory in Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia provinces—an area of approximately 3,000 square kilometers.

The faction, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra before severing ties with al-Qaeda, operates alongside smaller opposition groups and jihadist factions, including the Turkistan Islamic Party under the leadership of Abu Mohammad Al-Julani.

The region under HTS control is home to about five million people, most of them internally displaced, according to UN estimates.

HTS's latest campaign, the most significant in years, has more than doubled its territorial control, extending to Aleppo city, parts of Hama, and Idlib countryside with almost no confrontation with the Syrian army.

While no external power has openly backed HTS, the group’s recent offensive showcased advanced weaponry and a notable presence of foreign fighters, raising questions about potential covert support.

Government Forces and Allies

Once dominant, Syrian government forces have suffered remarkable losses since the conflict's onset. Early defeats saw vast territories slip away to opposition, Kurdish groups, and ISIS. However, Russia’s military intervention in September 2015 reversed the tide, enabling government forces to recapture substantial areas.

Before HTS's latest offensive, Syrian government forces controlled roughly two-thirds of the country, home to 12 million people. Their strongholds included Sweida, Daraa, and Quneitra in the south; Homs and Hama in the center; Tartus, Latakia, Damascus, and parts of Aleppo in the west; and portions of Raqqa and Deir Ez-Zor.

Syrian forces also maintain control of key oil and gas fields, including the Shaer gas field, Syria’s largest, and oil fields like Jazal in Homs and al-Taim and al-Ward oil fields in Deir Ez-Zor.

The government’s military apparatus relies on Russia, Iran, local forces, Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah, and foreign fighters from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq.

Russia remains a critical ally, with military facilities in Tartus and Hmeimim, and an estimated 114 military sites across the country, according to Jusoor Studies. Meanwhile, Iran operates 529 sites, making it the largest foreign military presence in Syria.

In the latest escalation of Syria’s conflict, the Russian air force launched a series of strikes targeting opposition forces, resulting in hundreds of casualties, according to local sources.

Despite the intensity of the initial assault, Russia refrained from pursuing further action following Bashar al-Assad’s retreat from power. Analysts suggest that Moscow’s decision to limit its involvement reflects a strategic recalibration as it navigates the evolving dynamics of post-Assad Syria.

The Role of Kurdish Forces

After the Syrian army’s 2012 withdrawal from Kurdish-majority areas, Kurdish forces established an autonomous administration in the north and east. Their military wing, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led the fight against ISIS and currently controls nearly a quarter of Syria.

The SDF governs regions with about three million inhabitants, about a third of whom are Kurds. Their control includes key oil fields like Al-Omar in Deir Ez-Zor and Koniko gas field, as well as territories in Raqqa and Hasakah.

The US-led coalition operates several military bases in SDF-controlled areas, including the strategic Al-Tanf base near Syria’s southern borders with Jordan and Iraq.

The coalition has expanded its footprint, increasing from 30 to 32 sites between 2023 and 2024, Jusoor Studies reports.

In the current escalation, Syrian opposition forces launched an attack on Kurdish-led fighters in the northern city of Manbij.

A statement attributed to the “Operation Room of the Dawn of Freedom” affiliated with a group identifying itself as the "Ministry of Defense of the Syrian Interim Government" was posted on X, declaring that the Syrian National Army (SNA) intended to "liberate the city of Manbij from the separatist PKK terrorist group."

By December 9, SNA, the Turkish-backed opposition group, gained full control of Manbij.

On December 10, the opposition armed factions reportedly affiliated with the military operations command took over the provincial headquarters in Deir ez-Zor, eastern Syria, following the SDF, according to Syrian media outlets.

Despite the US support of Kurds, President-elect Donald Trump and the Biden administration have signaled that the United States will refrain from military intervention in Syria.

“THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT,” Trump declared on social media from Paris, where he attended the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.

Turkiye and Allied Factions

Since 2016, Turkiye and its allied Syrian factions have launched multiple military operations, seizing a buffer zone along the border. Their territory stretches from Jarablus in northeast Aleppo to Afrin in the northwest and a separate 120-kilometer area between Ras al-Ayn and Tel Abyad.

According to Jusoor, Turkiye maintains 126 military sites in Syria, including bases and observation points, with most concentrated in Aleppo and Idlib provinces.

Its allied factions, grouped under the so-called Syrian National Army, include former opposition fighters, such as the Sultan Murad Division, and groups like Jaysh al-Islam, which previously dominated rebel-held suburbs near Damascus.

Turkiye's primary interests in Syria include preventing the establishment of a Kurdish entity along its southern border and ensuring the return of Syrian refugees. The fall of al-Assad has created both opportunities and challenges for Turkiye in achieving these goals

ISIS Resurgence

Despite losing its territorial caliphate in 2019, ISIS continues a low-level insurgency, launching attacks from desert hideouts in Deir Ez-Zor and Homs.

ISIS fighters also target government and Kurdish forces, maintaining their presence while largely avoiding counterattacks.

In the latest development, ISIS seems to have no direct involvement.

Syria’s Military Landscape in Flux

The recent HTS-led campaign, coupled with government setbacks, has redrawn Syria's map of control. Opposition forces now hold approximately 40,000 square kilometers—22% of Syria’s total area—while government-held territory shrinks.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government and the armed Syrian opposition's takeover of Damascus early on Sunday has raised concerns among analysts about the country's next phase, as divisions among opposition factions threaten to complicate the path to a new government.

Observers emphasize that Syria's political transition depends on both the internal dynamics of opposition factions and the influence of global powers in shaping the post-Assad era. For now, the road to reconciliation and governance in Syria remains fraught with uncertainty.

"The groups controlling Syria have a history of deep divisions and even violent conflict," Farid Saadoun, a Syrian political analyst, told Shafaq News. "These disagreements could resurface during the negotiations for forming a government and drafting a new constitution. Reaching a consensus may take months, and an agreement might remain elusive due to the challenges of aligning their interests."

Complicating matters, some factions, like HTS, are internationally designated as terrorist organizations, while others face disputes with neighboring states.

“Each group also carries the influence of its regional or international backers, including Turkiye, the United States, and Russia, whose strategic interests will likely shape any forthcoming political agreements.”

Fears of ISIS Resurgence

The sweeping changes in Syria have reignited concerns about the potential re-emergence of ISIS, though its activities during the recent upheaval have been conspicuously absent.

Iraqi security expert Mukhlid al-Darb told Shafaq News that ISIS's silence amid the chaos suggests strategic containment. "What happened in Syria aligns with a premeditated plan developed over the years. The ongoing conflict is confined to Syrian borders, and we’ve seen no ISIS activity during these events, contrary to expectations. This indicates the group is under control, and Syria’s trajectory is being steered by agendas that do not intersect with ISIS’s."

Despite this, the notorious al-Hol camp in northeastern Syria remains a source of concern for the international community.

Situated south of Hasakah, the camp is home to tens of thousands of individuals, including families of ISIS fighters and supporters. Administered by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), al-Hol has drawn scrutiny due to the potential for radicalization and its role as a symbol of the enduring ISIS threat.

However, al-Darb downplayed the immediate risks from the camp to Iraq, noting that ISIS has shifted its focus elsewhere. "The al-Hol camp operates outside active agendas on the ground. The group’s center of gravity has shifted to North Africa, the Caucasus, Afghanistan, and Pakistan—regions now serving as fertile ground for its operations."

Analyst Farid Saadoun highlighted the geopolitical implications of al-Hol, suggesting that the camp poses limited risk under current circumstances. "The camp is under SDF protection, so there is no immediate threat. However, if regional or international plans were to open its gates, the consequences could pose a global security challenge," Saadoun warned.

As regional and global stakeholders navigate Syria's volatile post-Assad landscape, the lingering specter of ISIS remains a critical factor shaping security considerations.

Shifting Regional Dynamics in Syria’s Post-Assad Era

The aftermath of Bashar al-Assad's fall has intensified discussions about the roles of key regional and international powers in shaping Syria's future. Analysts suggest that the geopolitical changes in Syria are part of a broader recalibration in the Middle East, with significant implications for countries with vested interests.

Al-Darb believed Syria’s recent developments fit into the blueprint of a "new Middle East," which he said began with conflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon before culminating in Syria.

"Each participating actor in this project has achieved strategic gains," al-Darb told Shafaq News, noting that the new Syrian order could marginalize Iran and its regional allies, particularly Hezbollah. "One of the main objectives was severing the supply line critical to Hezbollah’s operations in Lebanon," he added.

In turn, Jordanian political analyst Hazem Ayad highlighted the relative control demonstrated by the opposition forces as they advanced into major cities such as Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Daraa. He attributed this to Turkish guarantees regarding the behavior of opposition factions and their interaction with Syria’s diverse communities.

"While the SDF has retreated from parts of Deir Ez-Zor and villages previously under government control, they still maintain a hold over sensitive regions, including al-Hol camp, under the US security and political umbrella," Ayad explained.

Ayad expressed optimism that chaos could be avoided in the immediate term due to the presence of guarantors such as Turkiye and the United States. These actors are likely to oversee negotiations leading to a transitional government that represents Syria’s various factions. "The real test will come when a government is formed, as it will determine whether the situation stabilizes or spirals into further disorder," he said.

Turkish political analyst Firas Ridwanoglu echoed concerns about the uncertain trajectory of post-Assad Syria but stressed Turkiye’s relatively favorable position. "Unlike Iran or Lebanon, Turkiye appears less anxious. This is partly due to prior arrangements and the opposition’s alignment with Turkish policies," Ridwanoglu told Shafaq News.

He noted that the opposition's actions so far have been aimed at dismantling al-Assad’s political system while preserving essential state services. "This suggests continuity in governance, albeit without al-Assad’s regime. The fate of the Baath Party, however, remains uncertain," he remarked.

Strategically, Ridwanoglu saw Syria transitioning from one regional axis to another. "This represents a significant loss for Iran and the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ as Syria shifts closer to Turkiye and away from Tehran’s influence. Iran will likely fight to retain its leverage, particularly in Lebanon," he explained.

For Turkiye, the developments offer potential domestic and regional benefits. "The rise of a Syrian government more aligned with Ankara’s interests is a strategic win for Turkiye. It also paves the way for the return of Syrian refugees, which could bolster President Recep Tayyib Erdogan’s popularity at home," Ridwanoglu said.

Amid the shifting dynamics in Syria, one key player has taken bold actions without facing significant international condemnation: Israel.

The collapse of al-Assad’s government, long viewed by Israel as a formidable obstacle to its strategic objectives, has seemingly presented new opportunities for Israeli operations in the region. During an announcement of an agreement with Lebanon last November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stark warning to al-Assad, saying, “Do not play with fire.”

Since the fall of al-Assad, Israel has escalated its military activities across Syria, targeting critical military infrastructure, including airports and facilities in Damascus. These strikes, according to Israeli officials, are aimed at preventing Iran from smuggling weapons through Syria to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Israeli Forces have also seized control of a demilitarized buffer zone in southern Syria, established under a 1974 ceasefire agreement. Israeli officials describe the move as a temporary measure to secure the northern border amid ongoing instability in Syria.

The army said it had carried out about 480 strikes across Syria over the past two days, primarily focusing on strategic military targets linked to the Syrian army facilities and equipment.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had hailed the fall of al-Assad’s regime as “a new and dramatic chapter.”

As international and regional actors navigate Syria's shifting landscape, questions remain about the long-term implications of these dynamics, particularly for nations heavily invested in Syria’s future. The evolving roles of the United States, Turkiye, and Russia will likely shape the country's path toward a stable—or fractured—new order.