Nuclear strike on Iran: how exposed is Iraq?

Shafaq News

Amid growing speculation about a possible US nuclear strike on Iran, questions have emerged in Iraq over whether radioactive fallout could cross the border and contaminate rivers, soil and water supplies.

An Iraqi security expert warned that the risk cannot be ruled out if winds carry contamination west, while the country's nuclear regulator said distance, terrain and seasonal winds would limit any impact on Iraq.

The concern grew after Iranian state television on Tuesday broadcast guidance on what to do in the event of a nuclear explosion, advising people to shelter indoors away from windows, rely on bottled water and packaged food, and stay put for at least 24 hours until officials say it is safe to leave.

The broadcast came after US conservative commentator Tucker Carlson claimed that President Donald Trump's administration could carry out a nuclear strike on Iran within days, under pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

On Saturday, Trump said the United States still had to “take care of” one or two Iranian sites, including Pickaxe Mountain near Iran's Natanz nuclear complex, and could do so quickly.

The site lies about 225 kilometers south of Tehran and is believed to extend deep underground. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not been able to inspect it, and Tehran says its nuclear program is peaceful.

If conventional munitions, including the GBU-57 bunker buster, the most powerful US bomb designed for underground targets, failed to destroy the site, Washington could turn to a tactical nuclear weapon, Iraqi security expert Ahmed al-Sharifi told Shafaq News.

Tactical nuclear weapons, unlike strategic ones, target a specific site, al-Sharifi said, but a limited blast does not mean limited effects, particularly if the facility holds enriched uranium or centrifuges.

“Damage to nuclear material inside could spread radioactive contamination well beyond the blast site.”

A nuclear explosion throws a column of dust and debris into the atmosphere, where its path depends on winds near the ground and at high altitudes, including the jet stream, he said. Contamination can also settle into soil and surface and groundwater, putting rivers, drinking water and farming at risk.

Distance alone does not rule out fallout reaching Iraq if weather conditions push it that way, al-Sharifi said. He urged people to keep stocks of water and packaged food, seal windows and vents if officials issue warnings, and stay indoors for three to five days until specialist teams assess radiation levels, stressing that any precautions should follow official instructions.

Ahmed Khudair Kadhim, spokesman for Iraq’s National Commission for Nuclear, Radiological, Chemical and Biological Regulation, said Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz are about 700 kilometers from Iraq's eastern border, while the Bushehr nuclear power plant is more than 400 kilometers from the southern province of Basra.

He said the effect of nuclear dust declines sharply with distance and becomes much lower beyond 50 to 100 kilometers.

The mountains along the Iraq-Iran border could slow winds and the spread of dust, Kadhim told Shafaq News, while prevailing autumn winds blow mostly from the northwest, from Iraq toward Iran.

“Based on the weather data the commission relies on, any fallout would likely move away from Iraq over the next two weeks,” he said.

Kadhim also said the facility lies more than 100 meters inside the mountain and is surrounded by granite, factors he said could help contain debris from any blast.

According to Kadhim, the commission's central emergency room for radiological and nuclear incidents has prepared response plans for a range of scenarios, while an early-warning network along the border, linked to the IAEA, monitors for any change in background radiation.

When Israel and the United States bombed Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan with conventional weapons in June 2025, the IAEA reported no increase in radiation levels outside the sites, saying the main concern was chemical toxicity inside them.

The agency's chief, Rafael Grossi, warned at the time that the greatest danger lay elsewhere: a strike on the Bushehr power plant, he told the UN Security Council, could trigger a major radiation release across the region.

A nuclear weapon, however, would be an entirely different scenario from the conventional strikes of 2025.

Writer and Iran affairs researcher Saleh al-Qazwini said the US threats could be either serious or a way to pressure Iran into softening its negotiating demands, but he did not rule out Trump carrying out a strike.

“Any nuclear attack would harm the whole region, not just Iran,” he told Shafaq News, adding that the threats had revived debate inside Iran over whether the country should acquire a nuclear weapon.