Middle East's politics in 2023: a principle of uncertainty

Shafaq News/ Middle Eastern politics have been under the impact of a complex amalgam of factors that have contributed to forging the alliances we know in recent years. The huge, and rapidly changing, differences between many of them have been lessening -not in all cases- to give rise to rapprochements that, in the past, would have been unthinkable. This has led to a new geopolitical context in which ties between the Middle East's countries, also driven by a situation of global instability, became less predictable, and to a certain extent, uncertain.

According to Western observers and reports, "speculating on the nature of the region's quicksand is not available for scrutiny, but it is possible to illustrate the options the region may have. Amid a global event that has already affected the wider region, represented by the Russian-Ukrainian war, whose fragments directly hit the world economy, its balances, policies, and military, and security plans."

Observers state that Iraq will be "impacted by a set of events, and the next Amman conference, where Iraq has a central role in establishing and launching its idea, will be an indicator of the scope of international and regional interest in Iraqi developments and the stability of the situation there, especially in light of the participation of France, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and others."

In general, the year 2023 will be seen by Iraqis as the true test of PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's ability to conjure "miracles" that free them from the burden of mounting political, security, and economic worries, or at the very least, to keep track of whether he will accomplish even "some" achievements that contribute to improving their lives.

The resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, however, will also be the focus of Iraqis and others in the area. Westerners are betting on the viability of the Kyiv administration as well as the failure of the Russian military forces around the winter's frost and snow, which would leave its effects on Russia's regional role, from Iran to Iraq and Syria to Turkey.

Moreover, the situation that existed just a year ago, when Russia was beginning to emerge as a significant regional player and influence in the region, is changing, according to Western reports, including The Economist. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has diminished Moscow's role in the Middle East, a role that will become more fragile in 2023.

Observers say that the ability of Russian President Vladimir Putin to support Iran's stance in its nuclear negotiations with Western countries will be more limited. It will render Tehran vulnerable to pressure to make concessions in trying to lift Western sanctions on it, as well as its impact on Iran's position on all regional files and its influence in the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

Regarding Syria, the likelihood of two outcomes varies. The first is that the country would stagnate, preventing significant advancement despite Syrians' horrible living conditions. The second possibility is that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's efforts to improve relations with Damascus ahead of the May presidential elections in Turkey could help bring about a breakthrough in the situation in Syria, whether by ending the isolation from Bashar al-Assad's government or by reviving the country's economy through Turkey. Meanwhile, Erdogan needs to increase his chances of winning the elections by resolving the crisis of millions of internally displaced Syrians in Turkey while focusing on what Ankara sees as a threat represented by the Kurdish factions in northern Iraq and Syria.

Lebanon is also keeping an eye on the tripartite regional summit in Amman to see if any positive regional developments will have an impact there. This is especially true regarding the presidential election issue, which has been stalled for weeks, as observers fear that a prolonged deadlock or regional deterioration will worsen Lebanon's political and living conditions.

In light of the long-standing concerns that the continuation of the Iranian blockade may pique the appetite of war hawks, whether in Israel or the US administration, the Lebanese are also looking towards the Iranian scene and whether it will witness an understanding with the West, ease regional tensions, and contribute to accumulating some positive economic outcomes.

It is unclear if al-Sudani's administration, or the attendees of the conference in Amman, will be able to breathe life into the halted Iraqi-brokered Saudi-Iranian talks. It is quite possible that the people in charge in Riyadh may interpret Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's recent openness to China and the maintained fait accompli ties with the US as a safety net that renders mending fences with Tehran unnecessary at the moment.

Nevertheless, Yemen, where the fronts subsided under pressure from US President Joe Biden, may present Saudi Arabia with a fresh challenge that has been ongoing for years. Moreover, the need for a "truce" appeared to be related to the importance of the World Cup of football, which was held for the first time in the Gulf region and whose importance is symbolized by Mohammed bin Salman's attendance at its opening ceremony. This is because there have been rumors that the KSA is vying to host the World Cup in 2030 as the conclusion of the "Saudi Vision 2030" plan, which means that flames of war are an undesirable situation for Saudi Arabia.

However, some may view the rekindling of the Yemeni conflict as an opportunity to pressure the Saudi regime, both in Tehran and, paradoxically, in Washington itself, which looked with dismay at the exaggerated hospitality with which Riyadh received Chinese leader Xi Jin Ping, and the huge deals it concluded with Beijing, compared to the lukewarm reception of Biden in Saudi Arabia a few months ago.

Furthermore, the conclusion in Yemen, or the start of a war there, will undoubtedly impact the region as a whole, including Iraq, because it will directly affect the line of ties between Riyadh and Tehran, and by extension Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut.

While it is important to monitor the performance of Benjamin Netanyahu's most right-wing government in 2023 in dealing with the internal Palestinian challenge, or in its position on the "dangers" it sees from Lebanon -represented by Hezbollah-,the Iranian extension in Syria, and its policy of "raids" to strike supply lines from Iran to Iraq and Syria to Lebanon.

Observers warn that the results of the winter that has fallen on Europe and the world while the Europeans are recovering from the nightmares of their historical wars, and are now waiting for the outcome and results of the Russian-Ukrainian trenches, and whether the world will survive a new world war, will wreak havoc on humanity and the Middle East, which is mainly an arena of conflicts and energy resources.

However, the year 2023 will also bring with it a file of historical worry, as the epicenter of the explosion in the new year will be Taiwan. According to the Economist, Chinese rule is eager to declare victory in this war under the guise of "reunification", and it appears that it has not yet been folded, which will have a significant impact on the world as well as the nations of the region.