Lebanese military perspective highlights potential escalation to full-scale war with Israel
Shafaq News/ As tensions continue to escalate in the Middle East, the retired Lebanese military and strategic researcher, Brig. Gen. Elias Farhat, observed that Israel cannot currently engage in a war on two fronts in the south with Gaza and in the north with Lebanon. However, he simultaneously pinpointed the "red line" that could potentially push Tel Aviv to escalate its attacks on Lebanon.
Today, Lebanon's Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian military movement, made significant moves, launching multiple attacks on Israeli forces near the Shumira base, Duviv barracks, and the Bayad Blida site. These actions were in response to Israel targeting a point of Hezbollah in the Iqlim al-Tuffah, even though it was relatively distant from Israeli military sites.
In a recent statement, Hezbollah declared it had "targeted enemy artillery positions in occupied Palestine," indicating strikes on Israeli bases in the Syrian Golan Heights, a territory occupied by Israel since 1967.
Brig. Gen. Farhat underlined a turning point on October 7, 2023, when Israel faced a substantial blow. "Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, rushed to Israel."
"The Israeli Air Force, despite its readiness, engaged in retaliatory raids on Gaza without a clear tactical objective against Hamas. The ground operation commenced with the calling of reserve forces, yet it still falters." He explained.
He emphasized that the United States warned Israel against opening a northern front, urging it to focus on the conflict with Hamas. However, Hezbollah, on October 7, declared its support, initiating attacks on Israeli positions from Ras Naqoura to the Shebaa Farms, stretching about 110 kilometers along the border.
Farhat cautioned that an Israeli attack on Lebanon could strain its military resources, making it challenging to operate on two fronts simultaneously. He identified a "red line" for Israel, stating, "Attacks on vital and strategic targets such as air bases, major cities, and oil and gas facilities could trigger an all-out war."
What made the situation more critical, is the attacks on American military bases in Iraq, the Kurdistan Region, and Syria by factions aligned with the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq." Yemen's Ansarallah also announced missile attacks towards Israel.
The United States responded by increasing its military presence in the region, deploying two aircraft carriers, a nuclear-powered submarine, and thousands of soldiers.
Washington also urged the Iraqi government to honor the terms of the security cooperation agreement signed by the two countries. The agreement mandates Iraq's responsibility to safeguard American military bases located within Iraqi territory.
Gen. Farhat warned, "Strong attacks on American bases might lead to a broader conflict, possibly involving Iran, resulting in the closure of key waterways like the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. This could disrupt global trade, spike oil and gas prices, and even trigger a global war."
Despite the devastating toll of over 10,500 lives lost due to the Israeli aggression in Gaza, predominantly children and women, the fate of the conflict remains uncertain, leaving the world in suspense over Israel's intentions in the Strip or with Lebanon. The situation is further complicated by the enigmatic stance of Hezbollah, whose officials' statements often shroud their decisions in ambiguity about the possibility of escalation.
Anticipation mounts for the forthcoming address from Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, next Saturday. Till then, the southern Lebanese front, despite witnessing the killing of over 65 Hezbollah members and civilian victims, including three young girls and their grandmother, by Israeli forces, remains controlled.
