Israeli assassinations escalate tensions: Iraq’s stability at risk

Shafaq News / Recent Israeli assassinations of key figures, including Hezbollah’s top military commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, have heightened regional tensions and put Iraq’s stability in jeopardy. These attacks threaten major escalation across a Middle East already volatile from last year’s Gaza war, according to a US Stimson Center report.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran has significantly shaken the confidence of Iran-aligned Iraqi leaders in Iran’s ability to ensure the safety of visiting dignitaries. A prominent Iraqi official noted, "The inability of Iran to protect Haniyeh has led to doubts about Iran's security assurances." The Islamic Republic of Iran and Hezbollah are expected to respond, though the timing and nature of their actions remain uncertain.

Due to Iraq’s strategic location and the presence of US troops, the country risks becoming a focal point if the conflict widens. On August 5, a rocket attack on the Ain al-Asad base injured several US servicemen, further escalating tensions. Given Iraq’s fragmented political landscape and the influence of “pro-Iran militias,” the potential impact of a broader regional conflict could be severe.

Based on the report, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani faces challenges in navigating this crisis while attempting to keep Iraq neutral amid the proxy war between Iran and the US Despite efforts to mediate regional conflicts and improve ties with Sunni neighbors, al-Sudani's government struggles with internal and external pressures. The planned $17 billion Development Road project, aimed at transforming Iraq into a regional trade hub, faces uncertainty due to ongoing regional tensions and Iranian opposition.

While al-Sudani successfully brokered a tentative truce earlier this year, recent events, including the rocket attack on August 5, cast doubt on the truce's durability. The Iraqi government condemned the attack, but it remains to be seen how such statements will affect Iraq if US retaliation occurs.

Moreover, Arab Gulf states have shown increased willingness to invest in Iraq to bolster its economic recovery and reduce Iranian influence. However, a full-scale regional conflict could undermine these efforts and jeopardize Iraq's progress.

The report further revealed that despite some pro-Iran factions in Iraq expressing hesitation about retaliation, Iran's strategic interests in Iraq remain intact. Tehran’s approach aims for a stable yet strategically beneficial Iraq that facilitates the transfer of arms and funds to Hezbollah via Syria. Although the recent assassinations demonstrate Israeli intelligence superiority, Iran’s fundamental strategies are unlikely to change. The risk of escalating violence remains, with potential repercussions for Iraq’s stability.

As the region braces for potential Iranian and Israeli responses, de-escalation efforts led by the US and other powers, including a durable Gaza ceasefire, are crucial to mitigating the impact on Iraq’s fragile stability.

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