Iraq's "roadmap" for navigating regional conflicts: Balancing diplomacy and internal security
Shafaq News/ Iraqi political observers have proposed a comprehensive "roadmap" aimed at helping Iraq avoid the repercussions of the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon, emphasizing the need for diplomatic engagement and seeking to leverage Iraq's political influence to provide viable solutions for regional crises.
Diplomatic Strategy and Domestic Control
The proposed strategy coincides with domestic initiatives, particularly the need to ensure that weapons are confined to state control. This dual approach aims to fortify Iraq's position in the region and mitigate potential risks arising from external conflicts.
These proposals come in response to warnings from Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, who recently communicated to US President Joe Biden and European Union leaders that the region is "on the brink of a dangerous slide that could drag it and the world into continuous wars."
Insights from Experts
Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, a professor of public policy at the University of Baghdad, pointed out that "Iraq can avoid being drawn into the conflicts in the Middle East by adhering to the principle of balance that previous Iraqi governments have followed. However, this balance has been disrupted under Prime Minister Al-Sudani’s government, which is associated with the so-called armed factions (Resistance factions). These groups declared from the start that this government would be a resistance government."
In an interview with Shafaq News Agency, Al-Shammari suggested that one of the key steps Al-Sudani must take is to officially renounce this label and return to the principle of balance in Iraq's foreign relations, calling for "the adoption of a highly neutral foreign policy stance, avoiding provocation of both Arab and international parties." Additionally, Al-Shammari stressed the importance of Iraq not being seen as merely a bridge or a messenger for others but as a nation capable of taking the lead on key regional issues. He argued that "Iraq currently lacks such initiative."
Al-Shammari underscored the need for the Iraqi government to engage diplomatically with Iran, Arab countries, the United States, and the European Union. "Instead of waiting for diplomats to come to them, Iraqi leaders must proactively visit these nations to convey that Iraq offers solutions to the ongoing crises, leveraging its influence and alliances to avoid the fallout from the wars in Gaza and southern Lebanon."
On the domestic front, Al-Shammari argued, "Despite the government nearing the end of its term, it must immediately begin the process of disarming armed factions. Ensuring that weapons are solely in the hands of the state should not just be a slogan, but a concrete policy to protect Iraq from further conflict."
Although the government claims it is not directly involved in the war, Iraq remains a target due to the presence of US military bases and other strategic interests. Therefore, Al-Shammari stressed the need for the government “to take security measures, especially after failed attempts to negotiate with these factions.”
In conclusion, Al-Shammari warned that Iraq has become entangled in both the political and military dimensions of the regional conflict. "The recent attacks and Israeli casualties have placed Iraq within Israel's scope of potential targets. Even if action is delayed, Iraq remains at risk due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s classification of Iraq as part of the ‘Axis of Evil.’ This designation not only implicates the armed factions or the government but the entire Iraqi political system, leaving Iraq facing significant challenges due to the failure of its current political approach."
The Risks of Armed Factions
Security expert Mukhallad Al-Darb echoed the sentiments of Al-Shammari, noting that Iraq has become a potential target for Israel following the recent attack by resistance factions on Israeli forces in the Golan Heights, which resulted in the death of two soldiers and the injury of 24 others. This attack, which was officially claimed by these factions, has effectively placed Iraq within Israel's list of potential targets.
Al-Darb emphasized to Shafaq News Agency that attacks originating from Iraqi territory targeting locations outside its borders could have serious consequences. "These could manifest soon, possibly through strikes on strategic sites within Iraq or the targeting of key figures within the resistance factions."
Al-Darb highlighted a central dilemma in Iraq; the difference between the decisions of the state and those of the armed factions. The Iraqi state is attempting to distance itself from regional conflicts and shield the country from becoming a target. On the other hand, the actions of the resistance factions directly contradict the government's efforts. “Their operations provoke Israel, undermining official Iraqi policies and making it more likely that Israel will continue targeting these factions, which are engaged in direct confrontation with the "Axis of Resistance."”
Al-Darb also drew a parallel with the situation in Lebanon, explaining that "Israel's strikes are aimed at the resistance factions, particularly Hezbollah, rather than the Lebanese state. Israel views Lebanon as a sovereign nation and avoids targeting its governmental institutions or critical infrastructure. Instead, its focus remains on Hezbollah and its affiliates." This same pattern, he argued, "is likely to be followed in Iraq, where Israeli actions will target the resistance factions without directly attacking the Iraqi state."
Navigating Complex Geopolitical Terrain
Military and security expert, Lieutenant General Dr. Jamal Al-Halbousi, believed that Al-Sudani's recent statements place Iraq in a difficult balancing act, with both variable and fixed boundaries. "This political balancing act is one of the most complex the country has faced in terms of its regional, Arab, and international positioning," he explained.
Al-Halbousi elaborated to Shafaq News Agency that "Iraq is known for its policy of non-alignment or non-involvement. Its geographic location necessitates that it acts as a meeting point for various policies. Despite the Iraqi government's reassurances to American and Western embassies that it opposes any military escalation or expansion of the ongoing conflict, the reality on the ground presents a different challenge due to the involvement of certain factions, which puts the government in a difficult position."
He added that "Israel's capability to target its adversaries creates a significant concern for Iraq. This is why Al-Sudani is working hard to navigate a middle-ground solution, steering the country towards safety through a balanced, moderate approach. He aims to control all forces, including the armed factions."
Al-Halbousi pointed out that Iraq’s geographical and political situation requires delicate maneuvering to avoid becoming entangled in broader conflicts. Al-Sudani's challenge is to maintain neutrality while managing internal and external pressures, especially from factions that may act outside the state's direct control.
Al-Sudani’s Call for Action
Iraqi Prime Minister stated in a message to US President Joe Biden and European Union nations that the region is on the brink of a dangerous abyss that could drag it and the world into ongoing wars.
In a statement, Al-Sudani said, "As we mark one year since the events on October 7, 2023, and with the continuation of the Zionist aggression against Gaza, that extended to brotherly country of Lebanon, threatening the entire region, Iraq reiterates its early position, in which it warned of the grave consequences of the occupying entity's efforts to widen the war and conflict, and the results of allowing occupying entity to persist in committing crimes amid the international community's failure to fulfill its role."
He continued, "Today, in light of the dangerous developments in the region, we send a message to all our friends, particularly U.S. President Joe Biden and the European Union: we are on the brink of a perilous situation that could plunge the region and the world into prolonged conflicts, disrupt the global economy, and severely hinder development. Our region remains the energy lifeline of the world. We should acknowledge the significant stance of French President Emmanuel Macron, who called for halting arms deliveries to the occupying entity and urged efforts to end the war. His position reflects a genuine understanding of the region's serious situation."
Al-Sudani remarked, "Our government has worked hard to shield Iraq from the effects of this escalation, and we have succeeded in doing so with your cooperation and the collaboration of all our friends worldwide. This critical phase demands that we intensify our efforts and focus on stopping the targeting of civilians, sparing the region from the horrors of a war that would affect everyone. In such a conflict, there would be no winners only destruction and devastation. We reaffirm that Iraq will continue its efforts and endeavors, alongside friendly and brotherly nations, to work together for de-escalation and to prevent the widening of the conflict, which affects the security of both the region and the world."
