Iraq's engagement with Ansarallah: Regional implications and diplomatic challenges

Shafaq News/ In recent weeks, Iraq has witnessed significant political development, with the Yemeni Ansarallah (Houthis) increasingly engaging in public activities within the country.

Their participation in public events and meetings with Iraqi officials has sparked debate regarding the implications of this emerging relationship. This development is occurring in the absence of official commentary from the Iraqi government and raises critical questions about its potential impact on regional diplomacy, especially concerning Saudi Arabia, which is seeking to mend its ties with Iraq while facing ongoing tensions with the Tehran-aligned Houthis.

Who are the Houthis?

The Houthis, also known as Ansarallah, are a Shiite political and religious movement that emerged in northern Yemen in the late 1990s.

Founded by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, the group initially opposed the Yemeni government in 2004, citing perceived marginalization of the Zaidi sect and foreign interference in Yemeni affairs. Following Hussein's death, his brother Abdul-Malik al-Houthi assumed leadership and continued the insurgency, leading to a series of conflicts with Yemeni government forces from 2004 to 2010.

By 2014, the Houthis capitalized on the political vacuum created by the weakened government under President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, seizing the capital, Sana'a, and forcing Hadi to flee to Saudi Arabia. This action triggered a civil war, with a Saudi-led coalition intervening to support the internationally recognized government and combat the Houthis.

Analysts say that the Houthis, supported politically and militarily by Iran, have turned Yemen into a regional battleground, complicating the conflict with their role as a proxy in the broader regional struggle.

Despite ongoing military and political pressures, the Houthis have retained control over significant territories, including Sana'a, perpetuating the conflict and regional tensions.

Diplomatic Relations

Security expert Dr. Emad Allo argued that "Iraq's relationship with Ansarallah falls within the framework of the country's broader political and diplomatic engagements with various regional powers," explaining that the Houthis are building diplomatic ties across the Middle East.

Dr. Allo added to Shafaq News Agency that Iraq maintains a balanced and diplomatic role to ensure regional security and stability. Thus, "Iraq seeks to foster good relations with diverse parties. Consequently, the connection between Iraq and the Houthis is facilitated through its affiliations with Islamic Resistance factions with substantial representation within the current Iraqi government."

Yemen-Iraq Relations' Roots

The security expert explained that the "Iraq-Houthi relationship is not a recent development but has been ongoing for many years. This relationship is exemplified by an office for the Houthi group in Baghdad, alongside the diplomatic representation of the internationally recognized Yemeni government based in Aden."

"This issue is no longer hidden, and what has recently emerged is military cooperation between the Houthis and Resistance factions. The group's spokesperson, Yahya Saree, has announced this military collaboration aimed at launching joint strikes against Israel, in addition to the group's activities in Baghdad through meetings with Iraqi political figures."

Dr. Allo believed that this Iraqi-Houthi rapprochement negatively impacts Iraqi-Saudi relations, which have recently seen growth, particularly in investment aspects. Regarding regional stability, he argued that the Houthi group is not the primary driver of current issues, suggesting instead that the aggressive behavior of the "occupying entity (Israel)" is the main provocateur at present.

Saudi Arabia's Perspective

Political analyst Salah Al-Moussawi asserted that Saudi Arabia views Iraq as part of the Iranian axis, particularly given the dominance of Shiite parties in Iraq's government.

Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, Al-Moussawi noted that "both Saudi Arabia and the United States are well aware that Iraq, through its close ties with other Shiite factions like the Houthis, will have a connection to this group, despite the lack of public support from Iraq in the media throughout the Houthi-Saudi conflict."

Al-Moussawi added that "Saudi Arabia considers Iraq part of the Iranian axis. Even if the Iraqi government attempts to adopt a form of independence, it will not convince Saudi Arabia. Given the continuous support from Iran to the Houthis, Saudi Arabia believes Iraq lacks true political independence on this issue and cannot alter the existing dynamics. Given its clear influence in Iraq, gulf countries also recognize that the United States is the primary player in this context."

In his remarks, Al-Moussawi recalled the incident where a Saudi Aramco facility was attacked by missiles, with reports suggesting the attack's possible origin from Iraq. However, Saudi Arabia did not officially address this issue to avoid complicating relations with Iraq. Al-Moussawi commented, "I do not believe there is significant support from Iraq for the Houthis. Saudi Arabia is well-acquainted with Iraq on this matter."

Regarding the Saudi-Houthi conflict, Al-Moussawi explained that "the war has largely ended, and the Houthis' involvement in the Palestinian conflict has not changed Saudi Arabia's perspective but has added a new dimension to the Gaza issue and the unification of fronts." He emphasized that "Saudi Arabia is fully aware of the situation in Iraq and that Iranian influence currently prevails. However, Saudi Arabia hopes to secure some presence in Iraq through investments to build its base."

Although Houthi sources have not explicitly mentioned the presence of Houthi military elements on Iraqi soil, Israeli and Western reports have indicated the death of a Houthi military member during a recent US airstrike targeting an Iraqi faction camp south of Baghdad.

According to information obtained by Shafaq News Agency, "Abu Idris Ahmed Al-Sharafi" is considered the official representative of the Houthis in Iraq, with the group maintaining its own office in the Al-Jadriya area of Baghdad.

Videos have shown the Houthi leader attending official visits and meetings with Iraqi government officials in Baghdad and participating in memorial services and special events.

Iran's Influence

Dr. Azhar Al-Gharbawi, an expert in international relations, asserted that the Houthi group is a militant faction supported by Iran, with this support spanning material, logistical, and ideological assistance. "This reflects Iran's regional influence along the Arabian Gulf coast, particularly at the southwestern entrance and the Red Sea gateway. This influence has enabled the Houthis to control the Red Sea and international trade routes, forcing Israel to seek alternative trade routes with the world."

In an interview with Shafaq News Agency, Al-Gharbawi explained, "Iraq's involvement in this Iranian support demonstrates Iran's ability to mobilize Arab forces in the region against non-Arab powers such as Israel and the United States. Although the Houthis are fighting for political and cultural reasons related to the Zaidi sect in Yemen, the involvement of other parties, such as Iraq, could turn this conflict into a regional and international battleground, allowing external interventions and transforming an internal dispute into an international one."

She further noted, "The central question today is what Iran aims to achieve with its involvement in the Yemen conflict and its support for the Houthis. How does Iraq, despite its distance, fit into this balancing act? While Iran's public policy appears ideologically driven, relating to the sectarian struggle between Zaidi Shiism and Saudi Wahhabism, the hidden agenda involves extending Iran's influence over the Red Sea coasts and preventing Yemen from fragmenting into multiple states, which could lead to adversarial control over the Red Sea."

Al-Gharbawi also pointed out that Iraq's involvement with the Houthis in their conflict with Yemen may lead to a cooling of relations between Riyadh and Baghdad in the future. However, it may not reach the level of a complete rupture.

"Should Iraqi-Saudi relations experience a chill? it would likely be due to Iraq's support for Iranian expansion in the region. However, if the support is cultural, as previously stated by the Sadrist movement, such a cooling might not occur."

Iraq's Diverse Orientations

Ali Al-Saheb, head of the Regional Studies Center, explained, "Iraq is characterized by its diverse orientations and affiliations, hosting various camps—whether military, ideological, or doctrinal. This diversity often leads to reactions from neighboring countries, which have conflicts or disputes with groups supported within Iraq, such as the Houthis, who are a vital part of the Axis of Resistance. Naturally, this collaboration raises concerns for Saudi Arabia, which is keen on protecting its security and interests."

Al-Saheb noted, "The Middle East is experiencing a state of instability, akin to a boiling pot, where rapidly unfolding dramatic events complicate matters. Consequently, most countries in the region align with agendas based on their interests. The US exerts dominance over the Gulf region, while Iran and its allied armed factions resist this project and ambitions. In this context, Iraq inevitably finds itself caught between these two camps, significantly influenced by these warring powers, even if it attempts to maintain a policy of balance or neutrality."