Iraq “first to suffer”: A scenario following Trump's strike on Iran

Shafaq News/ As the United States ramps up its military threats against Iran over its nuclear program and continues its "maximumpressure" strategy with economic sanctions, experts warn that Iraq could be one of the main victims of the escalating crisis.

The danger for Iraq is that it could become involved in military operations, leading to serious security consequences. Pro-Iran armed forces mainly those under the umbrella of the Axis of Resistance, could target US interests within Iraq, and the Iraqi government may struggle to control these actions if military strikes are launched.

This would not be the first such move. From October 2023 to nearly February 2024, these forces carried out operations against US bases in Iraq and Syria in solidarity with Gaza. However, the attacks were later halted without explanation.

Observers suggest that Iraq faced US pressure and was warned of severe consequences if the operations continued. Beyond security risks, Iraq’s economy is also under strain, particularly due to its heavy reliance on Iranian gas and electricity imports. With the US halting Iraq’s sanctions exemption, the country now faces the prospect of an energy crisis.

Last month, Washington declined to renew a waiver that had allowed Baghdad to purchase electricity from Iran without violating US sanctions. Despite Iraq’s vast oil and gas reserves, years of war, corruption, and mismanagement have left it struggling with chronic power shortages, making it heavily dependent on Iranian energy imports.

While a US embassy statement claimed that electricity imports from Iran account for only 4% of Iraq’s total consumption, Iraqi Electricity Ministry spokesperson Ahmad Moussa warned that if gas imports are also cut off, Iraq could lose more than 30% of its electricity supply.

The government, he added, is now exploring alternative solutions. Iraq's oil-dependent economy is further at risk if any instability in the Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz disrupts oil exports, particularly to China.

Such disruptions could cause a significant decline in national income. Experts agree that the region is on the edge of a potential "security and military collapse," which would hit Iraq hard, especially as the country remains a battleground for the competing US and Iranian influences. This puts Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s government in a precarious position, faced with “difficult choices.”

Signs of Escalation

Strategic expert Ahmad Al-Sharifi notes that the US positioning at the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean is a strong indicator that the chances of war are increasing.

He believes that “US escalation against Iran is shifting from targeting militias to striking deeper Iranian assets,” with Iraq potentially becoming the next focus after operations in Yemen. He explains to Shafaq News that once the US neutralizes Houthis’s ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, the next phase could involve targeting Iraqi militias aligned with Iran.

In recent weeks, the US has intensified its attacks on the Houthi movement in Yemen, linking their actions to Iranian support, although Iran denies this connection. Meanwhile, the Houthis have escalated attacks on US naval vessels, including repeated strikes on the USS Harry S. Truman.

The possibility of Iraq being drawn into the US-Iran conflict is growing, especially given the alignment of Iraqi factions with Iran. Al-Sharifi believes this scenario would economically harm Iraq, disrupt energy supplies, and destabilize its economic activity, warning that “if war breaks out, Iraq will struggle to meet its payroll obligations due to disruptions in oil exports through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.”

Tough Choices for Iraq Al-Sharifi concludes that Iraq’s government is at a crossroads, having to decide whether to align with the US or Iran or to maintain a neutral position.

Since President Donald Trump’s second term began, the US has increasingly imposed demands on Iraq, including placing several Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) leaders on terrorist lists and ending Iraq’s exemption to buy Iranian gas for electricity generation.

Iraq - Iran Relations 

This move is expected to cause significant electricity shortages in the coming summer. Political analyst Aaed al-Hilali expresses concern that escalating tensions between the US and Iran could strain Iraq's relationship with Iran.

He points out that Iraq currently finds itself caught between the two powers, trying to mediate dialogue between them. However, US President Trump’s “more aggressive” approach toward Iran is causing alarm in Baghdad, as the consequences of the crisis are likely to spill over into Iraq.

Al-Hilali predicts that the US will not remain passive and will respond to any attacks on its interests, highlighting that Iran is unlikely to stay quiet, with threats to retaliate against US bases in the Indian Ocean. This could have disastrous consequences for the region, affecting more than just Iran.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf has threatened to target US military bases in neighboring countries if any military action is launched against Iran from those locations. Meanwhile, Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, warned that Tehran could pursue the development of a nuclear bomb "under the pressure of the people" if the United States were to launch a military strike against the country.

He also warns that Iraq’s economic ties to Iran, especially for gas and electricity, would be jeopardized if Iran suffered major destruction.

Iraq "first to suffer" 

In this regard, Nizar Haider, a political figure based in Washington, believes Iraq will be the first to suffer if the US-Iran crisis escalates into full-scale conflict. He argues that Iraq has failed to achieve political or economic independence, particularly in areas like the dollar, gas, and electricity imports.

Haider adds that Iraq could face a severe security crisis if any militia faction acts recklessly, even something as minor as firing a bullet into the air, given the heightened tensions, stressing that Iraq must be cautious to avoid being drawn into the conflict under the pretext of self-defense or slogans like “support” or “unity of fronts.”

Haider also notes that Iraq remains under significant US influence and lacks the military capacity to protect itself if it were drawn into a conflict with the US He points to recent months, where Iraq narrowly avoided damage from Israeli aggression thanks to US intervention.

Meanwhile, On Tuesday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the deployment of additional military assets to the Middle East amid heightened tensions with Iran, the chief Pentagon spokesman said.

The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group will be joined by the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group to "continue promoting regional stability, deter aggression, and protect the free flow of commerce in the region," Sean Parnell said in a statement.

Additionally, Parnell said the Nimitz Strike Group has begun its deployment to the Western Pacific to preserve the US's warfighting advantage in the Indo-Pacific.

Military expert Alaa al-Nashou shares Haider’s view, emphasizing that Iraq lacks the military strength to face the US, “the world’s most powerful military force.” He concludes that any attempt to side with Iran against the US would likely lead to “Iraq’s defeat.”