Iraq faces complex security challenges amid ISIS threat and US-led Coalition transition

Shafaq News/ In light of heightened security concerns in the region and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria by armed opposition forces, local and international warnings have intensified the group’s ability to exploit current instability in Syria to rebuild its capabilities, with experts stressing the necessity of maintaining Global Coalition forces in Iraq to eradicate the extremist organization.

However, Iraqi officials and observers have reassured that the decision to expel coalition forces from Iraq remains the same, with their final withdrawal scheduled for September 2026. They maintain confidence in Iraq’s security apparatus, emphasizing the country’s ability to independently safeguard its territory and quell concerns about an ISIS resurgence.

Intensified Security Operations Against ISIS

Iraq has ramped up its campaign against ISIS in 2024, targeting hideouts, key leaders, and logistical networks. These efforts have resulted in the capture or killing of dozens of ISIS operatives across multiple regions.

Last week, the Iraqi Joint Operations Command (JOC) conducted airstrikes on eight ISIS hideouts in the Hamrin Mountains within the Kirkuk region. The strikes destroyed shelters, transit points, and weapons caches, disrupting the group’s capabilities. In Kirkuk, Iraqi forces neutralized a suicide bomber wearing an explosive belt.

Identified as the security chief of ISIS’s Daquq sector, the individual was a high-ranking leader with extensive experience in the organization.

Meanwhile, Kurdish Asayish forces in Al-Sulaymaniyah arrested a senior member of ISIS’s media wing in a precision operation. In the same week, F-16 jets of the Iraqi Air Force launched airstrikes in the Wadi al-Shay area, south of Kirkuk, killing several ISIS members and destroying a hideout near al-Fashka village, 45 kilometers from Kirkuk city.

Ali Naama al-Bandawi, a member of Iraq’s Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, expressed confidence in Iraq’s ability to maintain security without foreign forces. “Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani reaffirmed the government’s intention to conclude the presence of Global Coalition forces in the country,” he said. Al-Sudani recently told parliament that coalition forces are continuing their withdrawal, citing the evacuation of troops and equipment from Ain al-Assad Air Base, with some assets having been relocated to Harir Air Base in Erbil.

Persistent Threat of ISIS Resurgence

Despite these successes, local and international officials have issued stark warnings about the enduring threat posed by ISIS. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed described the group as “more dangerous” now than in 2014.

Speaking at a forum on November 23, Ahmed stressed the need for continued coalition support to eradicate the group.

Iranian official Mohsen Rezaee added to these concerns, alleging that approximately 11,000 ISIS fighters and their families are being trained “in a US-run camp in northern Syria.” He suggested these fighters could launch attacks in Iraq, targeting cities like Mosul or Tikrit in the coming months.

Mazloum Abdi, commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), warned of increasing ISIS activity in Syria’s deserts. Abdi highlighted potential attacks on critical facilities such as al-Hol camp and Ghuwayran prison, urging “immediate action to contain the threat.”

Reports from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights revealed that ISIS recently executed 54 Syrian soldiers who had defected during the civil war.

US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have reiterated their commitment to countering ISIS. Blinken warned that the group could exploit regional instability to regroup.

In turn, Daniel Shapiro, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle Eastern Affairs, emphasized the importance of maintaining US forces in eastern Syria to prevent ISIS from regaining strength amid chaotic conditions.

General Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), also pledged continued support for Iraq’s sovereignty and efforts to combat terrorism.

The US Perspective and Iraqi Skepticism

US CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla and Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Iraq, reaffirming Washington’s commitment to the country’s stability. They emphasized continued support to prevent ISIS’s resurgence and protect Iraq’s sovereignty, reflecting a broader strategy to maintain security partnerships while gradually reducing troop presence.

Ali al-Maamari, a security analyst, has voiced skepticism about US claims that their forces remain in Iraq solely to combat ISIS. “We still hear US officials assert that their troops remain in Iraq to fight ISIS, which they claim continues to pose a threat. Yet, they overlook the fact that al-Hol camp in Syria, guarded by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) under US command, houses 57,000 family members and fighters associated with ISIS,” al-Maamari told Shafaq News.

He argued that the continued US military presence seems indefinite, justified by the persistent ISIS threat. “Unless US officials declare that ISIS no longer poses a danger to Iraq, coalition forces will remain. Moreover, strategic agreements between Iraq and the United States on military, political, and economic cooperation ensure a sustained American footprint,” he said.

Al-Maamari also highlighted Iraq’s reliance on US oversight of its financial reserves held in the Federal Reserve. “Even if armed factions or paramilitary groups were dismantled, this would not compel the Americans to forgo their strategic agreements with Iraq,” he concluded.

Withdrawal and Shift to Security Cooperation

Security expert Sarmad al-Bayati affirmed that Iraq remains committed to the phased withdrawal of coalition forces. The timetable includes the closure of the Ain al-Asad base by September 2025 and the Harir base in Erbil by September 2026.

“These timelines remain unchanged,” he confirmed.

Al-Bayati underscored that Iraq’s reliance on coalition assistance is limited to air surveillance and intelligence, areas where local capabilities are still developing. “Iraq has no ground-based reliance on coalition forces but does require aerial intelligence and airstrikes to monitor and target ISIS movements,” he explained.

On the other hand, National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji reiterated the importance of transitioning Iraq’s relationship with the coalition into a framework of bilateral security cooperation.

In November 2024, al-Araji acknowledged the coalition’s vital role in defeating ISIS militarily but stressed the need to recalibrate the partnership.

He outlined a two-year evaluation period to assess Iraq’s security needs and finalize plans for the full withdrawal of coalition forces.