"Dissolving the parliament and holding a new election": public discontent and al-Sadr's options

Shafaq News/ Despite the long history of the Iraqi political elite with constitutional violations, the current situation stands out as a precedent. The country is now heading toward the end of the first week of constitutional vacuum with the option of "dissolving the parliament and holding a new early election" becoming too real to be ignored.

Popular discontent

The Iraqi street is harboring a growing sense of dissatisfaction with the current political crises impeding the formation of the Iraqi parliament and delaying the passing of the 2022 budget.

"Politicians are manipulating the people's lives without considering their situation or feelings as humans. People want a government that meets their demands and offers them a dignified life, "said Abu Sattar, a vegetable vendor in al-Jadeeda area, "we have grown old waiting for a government that fulfills our aspirations only for some politicians to threaten us with dissolving the parliament and holding a new election."

Electoral reluctance

Ahmed, who holds a bachelor's degree in political science, yet Works at a clothing store in Baghdad, told Shafaq News agency that "promoting the notion of dissolving parliament and holding an early election by some lawmakers is an attempt to familiarize the public with it."

"Dissolving the parliament and holding a re-election uncovers the lack of a truly national aspect in the agenda of those parties. In fact, it demonstrates that all they care about is their political interests and personal gains."

"The issue of dissolving parliament now dominates young people's conversations in cafes, private sessions, and even in the markets. If the parliament is dissolved and an election is re-held, I believe most Iraqis will not participate," he said.

"Dissolving the parliament, holding a re-election, forming a government, or failing to do so are not as important to the people as approving the new budget and enlisting jobs," Nour told Shafaq News Agency.

"The politicians' speeches are attempts to check the street's inclination, whether toward acceptance or rejection. It is the street that has given confidence to the winners, and it can withdraw it if new elections are held."

The decision to dissolve the parliament in Iraq is governed by Article 64 of the Iraqi constitution, which states that parliament can be dissolved in one of two ways: at the request of the Prime Minister and with the approval of the Speaker of Parliament, or at the request of one-third of the members of Parliament, to be voted on by a majority.

Al-Sadr's options

"The parliament is supposed to dissolve itself if there is a political will that believes in the constitution and its mechanisms and is capable of declaring failure. Most political forces, however, do not have that, and the Federal Court should have a say in the matter," said Ihsan al-Shammari, director of Iraq's Center for Political Thinking.

"Most of the winning political forces will not choose to dissolve the parliament because it is difficult to achieve similar results to what they did in the previous election," al-Shammari continued, "brandishing with the dissolution of the parliament and holding a new election is a part of the political pressure cards."

"It is possible that the trilateral coalition will agree to dissolve parliament. However, it is unlikely because there is no intention of doing so, but we may see that if the blockage peaks and alliances fracture," he added.

"I believe the Sadrist leader intends to submit a formal request for the dissolution of parliament."

"If the Coordination Framework is unable to form a government before the 40-day deadline expires, Muqtada al-Sadr may opt for one of two options: opposition or ensuring that the Sadrist bloc, after achieving the required quorum, submits a formal request for the dissolution of parliament."

The Homeland Rescue Coalition

The proposal to dissolve parliament, according to political analyst Ali al-Sahib, is "a pressure card used by the political forces controlling the scene, specifically the forces of the trilateral coalition (the Homeland Rescue Coalition) on independent MPs to join the alliance, given that the first losers in the re-election process are the independent MPs."

"All forces do not want and may not resort to such a solution because it may alter or terminate their attachment to power. As a result, re-election is out of the question, but we may see many changes, whether in the content of alliances or their programs; some of them may be broken due to internal or inter-coalition differences," he concluded.