Amid an Internal dispute within the PMF, al-Kadhimi receives a parcel bomb in Erbil airport

Shafaq News / It is hard to believe that the perpetrators of Wednesday night's attack on Erbil airport chose its timing by mere coincidence.

The attack was carried out by a booby-trapped drone, in an unprecedented escalation in the types of arms used to target U.S.-led Global Coalition forces based there.

Rockets landed in the airport in mid-February, killing a civilian contractor and injuring five others - including a U.S. soldier.

A group calling itself the "Saraya Awliyaa' Al-Dam" claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it targeted the "American occupation" in Iraq and provided no proof of its claim.

This is the third attack of its kind since last September when unknown assailants targeted the airport with six rockets without causing casualties. Kurdistan's authorities then accused Al-Hashd al-Shaabi (P.M.F.) of launching the attack because the rockets were fired from Nineveh Plains, where they were deployed.

What happened over the past few days?

The U.S.-Iraqi Strategic Dialogue concluded its third round with understandings that lay the ground for limiting the scope of the U.S. mission in Iraq into pure training and advisory role. The joint technical committee emerging from the dialogue table will set the schedule and the pace of the deployment of U.S. troops outside Iraq.

This leads to the possibility that some parties are trying to influence the strategic dialogue's outcome, determine its priorities and possible consequences, or possibly undermine its pre-envisaged results, including the fate of the presence of American forces, its size, the nature of its role, and the possibility of its future positioning.

According to observers interviewed by Shafaq News agency, scrutinizing the list of potential beneficiaries of such goals can be long, including internal players and third parties.

Al-Kadhimi's role

The dialogue results may be an achievement for Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi that will be registered in his political and popular balance, especially in the run-up to the parliamentary elections in October. These results may help him deal more firmly with the militias and the unrestrained weapons.

Therefore, an attack such as Erbil's would be a pre-emptive blow to any achievement that might be recorded in Al-Kadhimi's political and security balance, which are also important issues for Iraq in general at this stage.

A leader of an armed Shiite faction told Shafaq News agency that there is some tension within the P.M.F., whether in the relationship with the Al-Kadhimi's government or the internal relations and interests it brings together, "What happened recently, namely, Erbil Airport's attack, did not receive consensus and support within these factions, which would exacerbate internal tensions and discord".

"I do not rule out a widening rift between the faction leaders and Al-Kadhimi, as according to some, Al-Kadhimi was angry and upset after the Erbil attack", he added.

What about Qaani?

Remarkably, Erbil's attack came after the visit of the commander of the Quds Force in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brig. Gen. Ismail Qaani to Baghdad. According to special sources, Qaani discussed several issues, including urging the P.M.F. factions to abide with pacification in two aspects: the relation with Al-Kadhimi's government and targeting American forces. That came days before the start of the U.S.-Iraqi strategic dialogue, which was confirmed by the Shiite leader.

Analysts said that Qaani's call not to attack U.S. forces and interests is linked to Iran's desire to show goodwill toward the Americans as Tehran prepares for talks with European countries directly - and with The U.S. indirectly - to negotiate a return to the Iran nuclear deal, a vital strategic bet for Iranian interests, which make it seem illogical to risk it through a low-impact military attack similar to that in Erbil.

Who is adjusting the rhythm?

In this sense, striking Erbil's Airport again raised important questions as to whether Tehran is unable to control the actions of armed factions, armed groups are already outside the control of Iranian influence, or outside the control of the P.M.F. command.

The attack on Erbil Airport came shortly after the conclusion of Kurdistan's president's visit to Baghdad. During the visit, all the outstanding files were opened and understandings about the budget crisis, the financial relations, border coordination issues, and security cooperation were reached, which spread a state of détente and optimism that the following is better between the two parties.

Issues such as the Sinjar agreement and coordination on the so-called disputed areas have become a real test for the communication between Erbil and Baghdad. Especially as it may be in the interest of more than one side to disrupt this hoped-for progress through operations such as the new targeting of Erbil Airport.

The party that may be involved in the attack has a direct interest in tampering with the Baghdad-Erbil relations and the continuation of the stumbling situation that prevailed the relation to take advantage of the blurry security and military responsibilities not only in Sinjar, but also in all the disputed areas in the hope of using it in the future. The only way to prevent that is through activating cooperation and coordination ties and closing gaps between the two parties.

On the other hand, the Americans believe that an Iranian or an Iran-backed faction is trying to deliver a message to Washington that Kurdistan cannot be a future alternative to the deployment of U.S forces. This puts the attack on Erbil in the context of the regional conflict as the Joe Biden administration tries to arrange its regional and international files.