A broader conflict in the region: Analysts divided on timing but agree on danger
Shafaq News
The Middle East appears to be entering what analysts describe as a “sensitive and dangerous stage” defined by large-scale escalation across multiple fronts. A growing number of experts warn that the fragile balances in the region could collapse into a broader war involving Israel, Iran, and their allies — with the United States looming in the background.
Yemen to Gaza: Signals of Escalation
Palestinian international relations expert Ashraf Aqqa told Shafaq News that recent developments mark a crossing of red lines, pointing to the Houthis’ declaration that attacks targeting their government represent “a major violation” — an announcement that he sees as paving the way for a stronger Yemeni response.
“Yemen is preparing a major strike against Israel that could disrupt the internal scene there, as well as US calculations, obstructing attempts to liquidate the Palestinian issue and prolonging the war in Gaza,” Aqqa said.
He added that continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire, attempts to disarm Hezbollah, and Israeli operations in southern Syria all point to a wider confrontation. “Israel’s provocative policies toward Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria are reshaping regional balances and fueling escalation with Iran, which refuses to accept Israel’s hegemonic role in the region,” he explained.
Lebanon and the Logic of “No Retreat”
Lebanese writer Murtada Samawi offered a parallel assessment, warning that the entire region is moving toward “escalation on all fronts,” noting that Israel’s entry into Gaza aims at total control, while Lebanon faces “hot days” amid insistence on disarming the resistance.
Samawi said Iran is also preparing for a new round of confrontation as the United Nations reinstates sanctions. “The indicators suggest a state of tension ready to explode at any moment,” he observed.
According to him, Israel will not back away from its goal of dismantling the “Resistance Axis,” a project supported by what he described as unlimited American political and military backing.
Iran: Assessing Capabilities and Limits
From Tehran, international relations professor Hadi Issa Daloul stressed that Israel has avoided confrontation with Iran in recent wars. Instead, he argued, Israel relied on drone operations launched from Iran’s eastern regions, with US air power filling the gaps.
“In the last war in June, 90 percent of Israeli operations were carried out through these networks, while 10 percent were US strikes. Israeli aircraft could not penetrate beyond 85 kilometers into Iranian airspace,” Daloul explained to Shafaq News.
He emphasized that Iranian authorities have since dismantled these networks and weapons depots, significantly reducing Israel’s options. “Today, Israel cannot target sites inside Iran directly. It may instead resort to hitting diplomatic facilities or external positions,” he predicted.
Daloul dismissed the likelihood of Israel waging a new war without Washington’s full involvement. “Tel Aviv cannot do anything alone. Its strength is not sufficient to face Tehran without the United States.”
Researcher Saleh al-Qazwini echoed this assessment, describing Iran’s response to recent Israeli aggression as a “lesson” meant to deter further attacks. Yet he cautioned that Israel remains unpredictable. “This entity cannot be trusted. It seeks to weaken everyone in the region and disarm resistance in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and even Iran itself,” al-Qazwini told Shafaq News.
According to Al-Qazwini, a renewed confrontation could either remain limited to Israel and Iran or expand dramatically, depending on the involvement of the United States, Europe, and other actors. “Just as others defend Israel, Iran’s allies will defend it too. The scope of the war depends on how far the opposing side wants to push it,” he said.
Iraq: The Vulnerable Link
In Baghdad, security expert Mukhlid al-Darb warned that a renewed Israel–Iran confrontation would inevitably reverberate inside Iraq, describing the country as one of Iran’s key remaining strongholds that has not yet been directly targeted, unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen.
“If Iraq moves to support the Iranian front, there will be an Israeli or American reaction against Iraq. That would destabilize internal security and create openings for dormant terrorist cells and armed groups to exploit the chaos,” al-Darb told Shafaq News.
He predicted that Israel would aim to hit more sensitive Iranian sites than in past wars — including energy, water, and other infrastructure crucial to the economy — in order to generate public discontent and pressure against Iran’s leadership.
Read more: A House of Cards: Beirut and Baghdad on the front lines
Jerusalem: A Countdown to Confrontation
From Jerusalem, researcher Hussein al-Deeq went further, asserting that the coming confrontation will be “more violent and decisive” than previous ones, potentially targeting more of Iran’s top political and military leadership. He said Israeli media outlets already forecast a clash before the end of August, though the timing depends partly on European–Iranian negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program.
“This war has received the American green light,” al-Deeq claimed, rejecting speculation that Washington might abandon Israel. “That is completely unrealistic. The American and Israeli outlook for the region is the same — the strategy of one weapon across all fronts.”
He added that calls to disarm factions extend beyond Gaza and Lebanon to Iraq as well, to sever links between Iran and its regional allies — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi groups.
Read more: Countdown to a wider war: Why Iraq is the most vulnerable link in regional escalation
Converging Warnings, Diverging Timelines
While these experts differ on the immediacy of war, they converge on the assessment that the region is entering its most dangerous phase in years. Their insights sketch a region poised on the edge of a wider war, whether triggered by an Israeli strike, an Iranian response, or a miscalculation in Lebanon or Yemen.
For Israel, the objective remains to dismantle resistance networks across the region, backed by U.S. support. For Iran, the focus is deterrence and maintaining its regional alliances. For neighboring states like Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, the danger lies in becoming battlegrounds for a confrontation neither they nor their fragile political systems can sustain.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
