Iraqi Kurdish activists fear being dragged into regional conflict amidst escalating tensions

Shafaq News/ Growing tensions between Israel and Lebanon have raised concerns among Iraqis that their country could be drawn into the conflict. Academics and rights activists in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, have expressed deep worries about the potential for the conflict to spread to Iraq.

“We cannot afford to get involved in any new conflicts,” said human rights activist Hoshyar Malo in a statement to Shafaq News Agency. “Iraq has recently emerged from a major conflict and is now in a period of recovery. While there are some uncontrolled factions operating independently from the state, the official Iraqi discourse has been largely rational and objective, seeking to avoid involvement in this conflict as it is not in anyone's interest to escalate it.”

Malo added that “there is an ongoing war in Palestine and very rapid developments in Lebanon. The national strategy in Iraq is to avoid aligning with any of the axes. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has been successful in articulating Iraq’s position on these conflicts.”

Kadhim Yawar, a researcher in strategic studies, echoed these concerns, warning in a statement to Shafaq News Agency that “there are attempts to drag Iraq into the furnace of this war, but the Iraqi government, in its declared position, does not want this war. There are diplomatic efforts being made through international institutions to pressure Israel to stop the war and avoid targeting civilians.”

Yawar said that “Iraq's involvement in this conflict would have many negative consequences for Iraqi national security due to the presence of US military bases, which could be targeted. This could lead the other side to retaliate against armed factions, and any strike on Iraq would destabilize the political structure and lead to changes.”

The rising tensions have already had a tangible impact on the Iraqi economy. Shafaq News Agency reported that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar has risen significantly in recent days, surpassing 1550 dinars to the dollar following Iran's recent strike on Israel.

Iraqi political and armed forces decided last week to distance themselves from the battles between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah and focus their efforts on providing humanitarian and financial support to people affected by Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Palestine.

However, Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, two Iraqi armed groups in "the Islamic Resistance in Iraq" alliance, have continued to carry out regular attacks targeting various areas deep inside Israel, as well as the Golan Heights.

Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada, a smaller faction, provides the necessary support for the operations whenever needed.

Last Friday, the Israeli military said two explosive-laden drones had targeted its forces in the Golan early the previous morning. Two officers from the Golani Brigade’s 13th Battalion were killed, it said, and 24 other soldiers were wounded.

On Tuesday, Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israeli military bases, with satellite images showing they caused significant damage.

Iran said the attack was a response to the Israeli killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, as well as a senior Iranian general also slain in the Lebanese capital.

Iraqi officials believe Israel is promoting the idea that an Iraqi faction killed the soldiers to lay the groundwork for an attack on Iranian-linked targets in Iraq.

They also think it downplays the fierce resistance Israeli forces are facing from Hezbollah as Israel invades southern Lebanon.

Most of these attacks targeted areas in the "north of the occupied territories" and the "south of the occupied territories", as the factions phrased it, including Haifa, the Jordan Valley, the Golan Heights, Eilat and central Israel.