Early election campaigning intensifies as Kurdistan prepares for October 2024 polls

Shafaq News/ As the Kurdistan Region of Iraq approaches its legislative elections scheduled for October 20, 2024, the political landscape is marked by unprecedented competition and a newly enacted electoral law introducing multiple constituencies within the Region.

Unlike previous election cycles, where campaigning typically commenced shortly before the election date, this time the campaign period began around three months in advance and is expected to continue until just before polling day. This extended campaign period could potentially impact voter turnout in al-Sulaymaniyah governorate.

Civil activist Hawri Karzan told Shafaq News, "This time, early campaigning started three months before the election, with each party employing different strategies. Influential parties are focusing on distributing gifts, resolving past issues, and discrediting their opponents, while smaller parties are highlighting corruption files or other issues against larger parties."

Karzan highlighted that the methods of early campaigning are diverse, including media speeches, digital campaigns, and the linking of incidental scandals to political opponents. He expressed concern that this early and varied campaigning might negatively affect voter enthusiasm, describing it as a mistake by all parties in Kurdistan.

Political analyst Burhan Sheikh Rauf told Shafaq News Agency, "The hardline statements made during this period can be seen as early electioneering." He added that "public awareness has shifted, as some individuals who were in power and made mistakes are now trying to obscure their failures to avoid impacting public perception."

Sheikh Rauf advised parties using aggressive rhetoric to focus instead on substantive issues that benefit the community and engage more constructively with the public. He emphasized that any party seeking a meaningful role in Kurdistan must present a well-defined program and plans that address citizens' needs, rather than relying on rhetoric disconnected from voter concerns at this time.

Political analyst Kamal Rauf has expressed concerns about the timing and impact of the upcoming legislative elections in the Region, scheduled for October 20, 2024. He argued that the current political instability and ongoing disputes are exacerbated by early campaigning, which could deepen existing conflicts and issues.

Rauf explained to Shafaq News Agency that the major parties, which have extensive business interests and control over parts of the market through party-affiliated companies, face no significant issues with financing their campaigns. In contrast, new and smaller parties, with fewer financial resources, often rely on support from political allies and business figures to fund their early campaign efforts.

Regarding the potential for political change in al-Sulaymaniyah and the wider Kurdistan Region, Rauf expressed skepticism. He suggested that despite changes to the electoral law and oversight bodies, the fundamental political landscape is unlikely to shift dramatically. Rauf attributed this to a "deep state" influence that effectively controls the Region's affairs, asserting that real power lies beyond the official government and parliament structures.

Al-Sulaimaniyah Governor Haval Abu Bakr has stressed the Region's unparalleled security stability compared to other Iraqi governorates, amidst growing concerns about early election campaigning. Abu Bakr asserted that recent incidents in al-Sulaimaniyah, described as isolated criminal acts, should not be interpreted as signs of instability.

Abu Bakr emphasized that the recent events are individual violations and are not indicative of systemic issues within the Region. He criticized the use of security issues as a tool in election campaigns, warning that such actions could undermine the Region's stability. The Governor reassured that the perpetrators of these recent crimes have been handed over to the judicial authorities, where legal proceedings are underway, with the law serving as the ultimate arbiter in all cases.

Abu Bakr has called for unity among the numerous political parties and groups in the Region, urging the government to encompass all factions under its protective umbrella. In his recent statements, Abu Bakr warned against any attempts to distort the Region's image of security and stability by intertwining it with election-related conflicts.

Abu Bakr expressed concern over the potential for electoral campaigns to exploit security, judicial, and economic issues, which could negatively impact public perception and stability. He highlighted that such actions could jeopardize the region’s current stable environment, urging for a focus on genuine issues rather than political maneuvering.

According to data, the total number of voters in the Kurdistan Region is approximately 2,899,578. This includes 2,683,618 eligible for general voting and 215,960 for special voting. The elections will be conducted across 1,431 polling centers with a total of 7,067 voting stations.

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq has a notable history of democratic elections, with its first democratic exercise held on May 19, 1992. This landmark event, conducted under Law No. 1 of the Kurdistan Front, saw the participation of 967,229 voters and was supervised by representatives from various international organizations focused on human rights and democracy, as well as members of European parliaments and foreign journalists. Seven electoral lists competed in this inaugural election.

The second round of elections for the Kurdistan National Assembly took place on January 30, 2005. This election was synchronized with the Iraqi parliamentary and provincial council elections, marking the first general elections in the Kurdistan Region and Iraq following the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. In 2005, voters in the Kurdistan Region and other areas of Iraq simultaneously elected three councils: the Kurdistan National Assembly, the Iraqi Parliament, and the Provincial Councils.

Notably, residents of disputed areas within Kirkuk, Nineveh, and Diyala were excluded from voting in the Kurdistan Parliament elections. This exclusion was due to the unresolved administrative status of these areas as stipulated in Article 58 of the Iraqi Transitional Administrative Law (TAL), which was later incorporated into the permanent Iraqi constitution as Article 140.

Kurdistan's parliamentary elections have seen significant developments and shifts over the years. In the second parliamentary election, held under a proportional representation system, 13 lists competed, with 1,753,919 voters casting their ballots. This election saw a notable increase in the number of parliamentary seats from 105 to 111. The outcome resulted in three primary lists securing seats: the Kurdistan Democratic National List with 104 seats, the Islamic Group in Kurdistan with 6 seats, and the Kurdistan Labor Party and Independents with 1 seat.

The third round of elections was scheduled to follow the end of the second parliamentary term on June 4, 2009. On January 5, 2009, Adnan Mufti, President of the second Kurdistan Parliament, proposed May 19, 2009, as the date for the third parliamentary elections, aligning with the date of the first parliamentary election.

Further, on March 26, 2009, Mufti confirmed this proposal in a letter to the Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq, urging coordination with the region's President to finalize the election date.

The electoral timeline has faced several adjustments due to logistical and financial constraints. Following a proposal by Adnan Mufti to hold the third parliamentary elections on May 19, 2009, the Region's President issued a letter on April 11, 2009, stating that the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) could not meet this date. The delay was attributed to the lack of a dedicated federal budget for the commission and insufficient financial and technical planning.

On May 2, 2009, the IHEC informed the Regional Government that it would be ready to manage the elections starting July 20, 2009. Consequently, the President announced on May 5, 2009, that the elections would be held on July 25, 2009, and proposed that the regional presidential elections be conducted through direct voting.

The elections took place successfully on July 25, 2009, with the presence of numerous international and local observers. Twenty-four lists competed for 111 parliamentary seats, with 11 lists winning representation.

As the third parliamentary term neared its end, Arslan Bayez, President of the Kurdistan Parliament, officially requested on December 5, 2012, the Kurdistan Regional Government to set a date for the fourth parliamentary elections.

“On September 7, 2013, the legal term for the third parliament of the Kurdistan Region was set to end. According to Article 2 of Law No. 1 of 2005 on the Presidency of the Kurdistan Region, the President of the Kurdistan Region was required to issue an official decree specifying the date for the next parliamentary elections before the end of the current term. This decree was also meant to inform the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) of Iraq to prepare for the elections, as the commission requires a six-month preparation period.”

On April 18, 2013, the President of the Kurdistan Region issued Decree No. 50, setting September 21, 2013, as the official date for both the parliamentary and presidential elections. This date was chosen because it coincided with the end of the President's term.

The parliamentary elections took place on September 21, 2014, with 31 electoral lists participating. Seventeen of these lists secured seats in the Kurdistan Parliament.

According to Article 1 of Law No. 2 of 2017, which redistributed the powers of the Presidency of the Kurdistan Region to regional institutions, the Prime Minister issued Decree No. 1 of 2018, scheduling the fifth parliamentary elections for September 30, 2018. The IHEC reported that 3,085,461 citizens were eligible to vote, and 1,845,979 participated, representing 59% of the total electorate. Out of 29 participating lists, 16 secured parliamentary seats.

On June 26, 2024, the Kurdistan Region’s Presidency issued its fifth decree to set a new date for the sixth parliamentary elections. Previously, four similar decrees had been issued, but elections had been postponed each time. The new date for the elections is set for October 20, 2024.

The IHEC confirmed its readiness to conduct the elections on this date. It will oversee the entire electoral process through its national office and Regional offices, including voting, counting, result announcement, and handling any legal challenges.