Perilous implications: Sainte-Laguë may precipitate tension in Iraq

Shafaq News/ The Iraqi parliament is on the cusp of settling the long-standing dispute over the third amendment to the law of elections for provincial and district councils as the security forces have seal off the Green Zone after a mass assembly of demonstrators who firmly reject the legislation. Onlookers caution that potential street reactions could trigger an explosive turn of events in Iraq.

As the hour hand ticks towards the much-anticipated parliamentary decision, slated for 8:30 p.m. tonight, Saturday, the Iraqis watch with bated breath. The amendment to the election law, based on the Sainte-Laguë system, which has raised heated debate, is due for a vote.

Since Friday night, vehement dissenters, opposed to the amendment, have congregated before the Iraqi parliament in the Allawi district of Baghdad. The central committee for protests has likewise issued a call for a sit-in in front of the parliament, vehemently protesting the vote on the election law using the Sainte-Laguë system.

A political consensus has been reached to approve the legislation, according to Aref al-Hammadi, a member of the State of Law coalition. He contends that "the election law is utilized in many countries worldwide, and the controversy surrounding it is due to its paramount importance. However, the majority supports passing this law, as the coalition that formed the current government supports it. As a parliamentary democracy, the parliament has the power to resolve the dispute by voting on the law."

On the flip side, the adoption of the electoral representation formula of 1.7, based on the Sainte-Laguë system, has drawn the opposition of over 75 independent lawmakers and "emerging" blocs.

Bassim Khashan, an independent parliamentarian, explained, "a section of the election law was previously voted on in a session, and objections were lodged against it at the Federal Court. The prevailing opinion on the law is subjective and unproductive, as most independent lawmakers do not hold a firm stance on this issue."

Khashan pointed out that "as a result, missed opportunities to correct the shortcomings in the law have arisen due to the lack of clarity among independent MPs and the biased nature of the prevalent opinion on the street."

Last Monday, the Iraqi parliament voted on seven out of the 15 contentious paragraphs in the election law, postponing the decision on the remaining items to today's session. Over the past two weeks, the Iraqi parliament has failed to hold any session to pass the third amendment to the law of elections for provincial and district councils, in its present form and the Sainte-Laguë system, which opponents consider a law tailor-made to the clout of powerful factions in the country, as it re-introduces the single-district system.

Hybrid Sainte-Laguë

The Secretary-General of the Nazil Akhed Haqqi Movement, Mashari al-Furayji, has spoken out against the current electoral law in the Iraqi parliament, arguing that it is not the original Sainte-Laguë formula.

"The original formula typically has a divisor between 1.1 and 1.2, but in some countries, it can reach up to 1.4," he said, " +the formula being used in Iraq is a hybrid Sainte-Laguë formula that was invented by the Iraqi parliament."

However, al-Furayji concerns extend beyond the electoral system. He highlights that the mechanisms of the election law could enable the manipulation of votes, leading to significant electoral fraud. In particular, he warns against the use of the unified card over the biometric card and manual vote counting and sorting.

"These measures could potentially undermine the integrity of the electoral process and undermine the confidence of the Iraqi people in their democratic institutions," he explained.

The Sainte-Laguë method is a mathematical formula used to distribute votes in proportional representation systems. By dividing alliance votes by 1.4 incrementally, the method provides smaller alliances with a greater chance of winning. However, Iraq's previous electoral law used a divisor of 1.9, which disadvantaged individual candidates, independent and civilian candidates, and emerging small political entities, in favor of larger political entities.

"Silence is not an option"

Dr. Dhirgham Majid, a protester, said, "the demonstrations and sit-ins that have been ongoing since last night are still continuing in rejection of the Sainte-Laguë law that serves the ruling political class."

He explains that "although the recent law on which the elections were held does not fulfill the aspirations of the Iraqi people, it somewhat displaced corrupt individuals and, in return, brought new independent faces who are not accused of corruption."

Majid added, "the Iraqi people demand a fair election law to rid themselves of the corrupt individuals who insist on passing it to serve their interests and desires, leading to further suffering and destruction of the nation and its people. This cannot be ignored."

Regarding the law's approval, Majid indicates that "there are other steps being considered besides the sit-in, and there are massive crowds who will arrive at the sit-in location within hours, and then a statement will be issued by the coordination committee regarding the session and the law to be passed in it."

Serious repercussions

On the other hand, political researcher Abdulqader al-Nael believes that "the process of passing the Sainte-Laguë law that the coordination framework desires will have serious repercussions on the Iraqi scene, and these repercussions represent a blatant challenge to the Sadr movement and specifically to Muqtada Al-Sadr, who raised slogans of reform. Therefore, the latter is now at a crossroads, either to be present and actively involved in the process of not approving this law or to allow the coordination framework to succeed in excluding Sadr again in the upcoming elections."

Al-Nael points out during his conversation with Shafaq News Agency that "the main reason for pushing towards the legislation of the election law is that their future depends on it, as it is a return to the starting point, after failing in the multiple-district elections. However, they have put themselves in front of the people, especially since there is a significant audience, the October Revolutionaries, who shed a lot of blood to change this oppressive law on the Iraqi voter."

He confirms that "passing the law is a challenge and a real confrontation to the Iraqi people, so there will be various reactions, including the launch of new protests, which have already begun, especially directing Sadr not to allow his political leaders to travel to confront this issue. Thus, we are facing a new phase of conflict if the Sainte-Laguë law is passed today."

Al-Nael predicts at the end of his speech that "there will be serious repercussions on the Iraqi scene, and the protests will be the backbone of confronting these individuals, and the situation may evolve towards early elections, making the Sudanese government on the brink due to its inability to complete its upcoming deadline, through which it seeks to stay for three years. Therefore, the law will ignite the situation in Iraq."