Iraq's growing population: ‘A ticking time bomb’

Shafaq News/ On Monday, the Iraq Future Foundation for economic studies and consultancy raised concerns over the country's rapid population growth and escalating poverty rates.

The Foundation revealed that Iraq’s population is increasing by over one million people annually, with projections suggesting a rise from the current 46 million to more than 50 million by 2030 and exceeding 70 million by 2040.

Manar Al-Obaidy, the foundation’s head, cited figures from the Ministry of Planning’s latest general census, noting that “the detailed results are set to be published on February 24.” He highlighted that “Iraq’s annual population growth rate stands at 2.53%,” emphasizing the significant demographic shift ahead.

The Foundation also addressed Iraq’s poverty levels, which currently stand at 17.5%, meaning that for every 30 Iraqis, five live below the poverty line. However, disparities exist across provinces, with al-Muthanna experiencing a poverty rate as high as 40%.

“Without urgent economic reforms, the poverty rate could climb to 23% by 2030 and reach a staggering 84% by 2040,” Al-Obaidy explained.

He attributed the worsening economic outlook not only to fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical instability but also to Iraq’s accelerating demographic expansion. “Maintaining current budget levels—160 trillion dinars—while trying to curb poverty would become unsustainable,” Al-Obaidy cautioned.

“Projections indicate that by 2040, achieving a poverty rate below 5% would require an annual budget surpassing 300 trillion dinars,” he remarked. “Given the expected price of oil at $50 per barrel by then, Iraq would need to export 12.5 million barrels per day to generate sufficient revenue.”

The economist described the situation as a “ticking time bomb,” urging immediate measures to curb population growth, enhance government revenues, and diversify the economy.

“Failure to act,” Al-Obaidy warned, “could push Iraq toward a crisis similar to those seen in some African nations, characterized by extreme poverty, tribal conflicts, famine, and rising crime.”

To combat the crisis, Iraq’s Ministry of Planning is developing its third five-year poverty reduction strategy. Former ministry spokesperson Abdul-Zahra Al-Hindawi previously revealed that “this initiative aims to empower the poor through improved healthcare, education, housing, and income support.”

However, financial constraints remain a significant hurdle. Official data indicates that nearly 3 million Iraqis currently receive government aid, the number of those eligible exceeds 9 million, underscoring the growing gap between needs and available resources.