Uncertain expectations for oil prices in 2024
Shafaq News / Amidst persistent worries about the global economy teetering toward a potential recession, there remains ambiguity surrounding China's economic recovery, the world's second-largest economy. Geopolitical tensions, notably the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, warfare in Gaza, and concerns over security in the Red Sea navigation, compounded with ample oil supply from non-OPEC+ nations, have contributed to a cautious stance among research firms when forecasting oil prices for the coming year.
These projections are notably lower than the initial expectations set for 2023.
Despite proactive measures taken by the OPEC+ alliance throughout 2023 to maintain stability within oil markets, which account for roughly 40% of global oil supplies, prognostications for oil prices in 2024 continue to be guarded. The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates that Brent crude will average around $84 in the first half of 2024, with an annual estimate of $83, a decrease from their prior forecast of $93 for the current year.
Barclays, revising its earlier projection, has reduced its forecast for Brent prices to $93, marking a $4 decline. Conversely, ING's outlook suggests prices hovering near $80 in the initial half of 2024, with an optimistic shift to $91 in the latter half as the market transitions towards a supply deficit. However, J.P. Morgan holds a more pessimistic perspective, predicting an average of $83 per barrel for Brent in 2024.
