Ukraine war-related inflation may drive protests and riots, World Bank warns

Shafaq News / Soaring energy and food prices triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine could exacerbate existing food security concerns in the Middle East and Africa, and may fuel growing social unrest, World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart said.

Germany will host a virtual meeting of agriculture ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies on Friday to discuss the impact of the invasion amid growing concerns about stabilizing food markets.

"There will be important ramifications for the Middle East, for Africa, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, in particular," which had already been experiencing food insecurity, Reinhart told Reuters in an interview.

"I don't want to be melodramatic, but it's not a far stretch that food insecurity and riots were part of the story behind the Arab Spring," she said, adding that successful and unsuccessful coups had increased over the past two years.

The Arab Spring refers to a series of pro-democracy protests and uprisings that took place in the Middle East and North African beginning in 2010, beginning in Tunisia and spreading to five other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain.

Sudden spikes in food prices can lead to social unrest, as happened in 2007-2008 and again in 2011, when global food price increases were associated with riots in more than 40 countries.

Agricultural commodities were already 35% higher in January, compared with a year ago, and are expected to rise further due to the war since Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of wheat, maize, barley and sunflower oil, the World Bank reported last month, days after the Russian invasion began.

(Reuters)