Oil prices could jump $20 per barrel if Israel strikes Iranian fields: analysts

Shafaq News/ Oil prices could surge by $20 per barrel immediately if Israel launches a strike on Iranian oil facilities, Saudi energy expert Fahad bin Jumaa said on Sunday, pushing back against forecasts of a slower, more gradual increase.

Speaking to Al Arabiya Business, bin Jumaa, a former member of Saudi Arabia’s Shura Council Economic and Energy Committee, said that while Goldman Sachs had predicted a price spike in the coming year if Iran’s oil production was disrupted, any rise would likely be immediate. "The price increase would occur as soon as the strike happens, not over time," he said, adding that prices could reach $90 or even $100 per barrel depending on the scale of the attack and the extent of the disruption.

Goldman Sachs earlier projected a $20 per barrel increase in 2025 if Iranian output dropped by one million barrels per day due to a military strike. However, the investment bank's forecast assumed that OPEC+ would not intervene with higher production.

Bin Jumaa, however, suggested the price spike would be short-lived, with the market stabilizing within weeks as OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would likely ramp up production to offset any Iranian losses.

Rising tensions in the Middle East have already led to sharp gains in oil prices. Brent crude posted its biggest weekly increase since January 2023, up over 8%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 9.1%, the highest weekly jump since March 2023.

Oil market analysts warn that a strike on Iran could fuel further volatility. "Geopolitical risks, such as a potential Israeli strike on Iranian oil infrastructure, would drive oil prices higher due to concerns about supply disruptions," said Mohammad Al-Shatti, an oil market expert, in a separate interview.

Iran, a member of the OPEC+ alliance, produces roughly 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for around 3% of global supply.

Citigroup analysts estimated that a major Israeli strike on Iranian oil fields could remove up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the market, while a more limited attack targeting refining capacity could cut 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day.