OPEC oil output falls as Nigerian rebound falters

Shafaq News/ OPEC oil output fell in January, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, as Iraqi exports declined and Nigerian output did not recover further while Gulf members maintained robust compliance with an OPEC+ deal on production cuts to support the market.

The survey found that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 28.87 million barrels per day (bpd), down 50,000 bpd from December. In September, OPEC output hit its highest since 2020.

Output from OPEC and allies, including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, increased for most of 2022 as demand recovered. However, with oil prices weakening in November, the group made its most significant cut to production targets since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Its decision from November called for a 2 million bpd cut to the OPEC+ output target, of which about 1.27 million bpd was meant to come from the ten participating OPEC countries. Instead, the same target currently applies.

With the decline in output this month, compliance with the agreement rose to 172% of pledged cuts, according to the survey, against 161% in December.

Output significantly undershoot targeted amounts because many producers - notably Nigeria and Angola - cannot pump at the agreed levels.

The survey found that the 10 OPEC members required to cut production pumped 920,000 bpd below the group's January target. The shortfall in December was 780,000 bpd.

According to Eikon data and two companies that track the flows, OPEC's second-largest producer, Iraq, has exported fewer barrels this month from its southern fields.

The survey found that Nigerian output, which rebounded in December, held at similar levels in January, leaving more to do if the country is to meet a target to lift production to 1.6 million bpd this quarter.

The survey found that OPEC's Gulf producers complied relatively closely with their targets under the OPEC+ agreement. However, some sources in the survey also thought Saudi Arabia had trimmed exports. On the other hand, output in the United Arab Emirates increased by about 10,000 bpd.

Among Libya, Iran, and Venezuela, the three producers exempt from OPEC cuts, Venezuela's output was slightly higher, and there was a slight decline in Iran, which registered a surge in exports in December.

The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market. It is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from companies that track flows, such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC, and consultants.