Iraq’s oil production projections for 2025-2026: TAQA platform analysis
Shafaq News/ Iraq's oil production in 2025 will reach approximately four million barrels per day (bpd) during the first quarter, the TAQA platform forecasted on Saturday.
The platform’s analytical review noted that if Iraq adheres to offsetting overproduction beyond OPEC+ quota agreements, production may settle at 3.880 million bpd.
With the reinstatement of 220,000 bpd from Baghdad's voluntary cuts, Iraq's oil production is projected to reach 4.012 million bpd in April 2025, with a net output of 3.892 million bpd after accounting for surplus production compensation.
In 2024, Iraq’s oil production averaged 4.254 million bpd in the first quarter, dropped to 4.214 million bpd in the second, and rose to 4.244 million bpd in the third.
The analysis projected Iraq's oil production to reach 4.024 million bpd in May 2025, with compensated output at 3.919 million bpd. In June 2025, production is expected to increase to 4.037 million bpd, with compensated output at 3.947 million bpd.
The report forecasted further increases, with July production reaching 4.049 million bpd (3.959 million bpd post-compensation) and August rising to 4.061 million bpd (3.971 million bpd post-compensation).
In September 2025, production is expected to reach 4.073 million bpd, with compensated output at 3.978 million bpd, completing the surplus compensation. In contrast, Iraq’s oil production in September 2024 dropped to 4.143 million bpd, declining further to 4.089 million bpd in October and 4.043 million bpd in November.
For October 2025, Baghdad’s production is expected to reach 4.086 million bpd, rising to 4.098 million bpd in November, with the highest output projected for December at 4.110 million bpd.
In 2023, Iraq’s average oil production decreased to 4.289 million bpd, down from the daily average of 4.439 million bpd in 2022, due to Baghdad’s commitment to OPEC+ production cuts.
Iraq’s Oil Production in 2026
The platform's analysis estimated Iraq's oil production in 2026 at around 4.431 million bpd, excluding adjustments for production cuts or voluntary reductions under OPEC+ quotas.
In January 2026, production is expected to total 4.122 million bpd, rising to 4.134 million bpd in February and 4.147 million bpd in March, with monthly growth of 12,000 to 14,000 bpd.
By August 2026, production is expected to reach 4.208 million bpd, stabilizing at 4.220 million bpd from September to December.
