Iraq's 2027 budget sets impossible 4M bpd oil exports
Shafaq News- Baghdad
Iraq’s target of exporting four million barrels of oil per day, as outlined in the draft 2027 budget, is “impossible” given the country’s current export capacity, oil expert Hamza Al-Jawaheri said on Tuesday, adding that the target could not be reached even if the Strait of Hormuz were reopened.
Speaking to Shafaq News, Al-Jawaheri explained that Iraq’s current oil production ranges between 4.3 million and 4.6 million barrels per day. About one million barrels go to domestic refineries, leaving roughly 3.5 million barrels for export.
“Because of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, we cannot currently export this remaining volume,” Al-Jawaheri noted, clarifying that current exports range between two million and 2.25 million barrels per day through Iraq’s southern and northern routes.
Under these conditions, the four-million-barrel daily export target in the 2027 budget draft is unattainable, he stressed.
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Even if the strait were reopened, Iraq would still be unable to reach that level, Al-Jawaheri estimated. “The country could export around 3.5 million barrels per day under normal conditions with the strait open.”
Increasing exports would require expanded oil infrastructure, higher production and sufficient storage capacity to accommodate additional output, the expert explained.
Regarding the oil price assumption in the 2027 budget, Al-Jawaheri described the $58-per-barrel benchmark as a mistake, arguing that the figure was too high. He recommended setting the budget assumption at $40 per barrel, citing what he described as the current “bleak” conditions.
He also pointed out that Iraq offers large discounts on its crude exports, making a higher oil price assumption inappropriate under current conditions.
