Iraq oil breach: Pumping more amid price pressure

Shafaq News/ Iraq has exceeded its OPEC+ oil production quota by more than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), exposing Baghdad to mounting pressure to curb output as global demand softens and oil prices decline.

Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi, citing official data, said Iraq’s crude exports averaged 3.437 million bpd in March, generating $7.716 billion in revenue. However, total production rose above 5.2 million bpd, far exceeding its OPEC+ target.

OPEC+ sources told Reuters the group may consider advancing output cuts to June if market conditions worsen. Barclays, meanwhile, lowered its 2025 Brent price forecast to $70 a barrel, citing an anticipated surplus of one million bpd.

According to the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO), Iraq exported more than 106 million barrels of crude in March, primarily from southern oil fields, with smaller volumes from Qayyara and Kirkuk.

While Baghdad largely complied with its quota in early 2025, production surged in March, driven by the recovery of the Rumaila oilfield. April estimates suggest Iraq continued to overproduce by up to 300,000 bpd.

“This excess could lead to additional restrictions on Iraq’s oil production starting in May,” Al-Marsoumi warned, adding that falling prices could face further pressure, especially with the lingering impact of tariffs imposed by former US President Donald Trump.

In response to OPEC+ pressure, Iraq has announced plans to cut exports by around 100,000 bpd in May to demonstrate compliance. Baghdad has also pledged to submit an updated compensation plan to address its earlier overproduction.

Analysts say Iraq’s chronic struggle to stay within OPEC+ limits may draw sharper scrutiny this year as price weakness and supply concerns test the group’s cohesion.

“Baghdad will likely face tougher demands to curb production if it wants to avoid stricter measures later this year,” one oil analyst said.