Shafaq News/ Iraq’s Kurdish population may gain more from a consistent US foreign policy under Vice President Kamala Harris than the unpredictability associated with a potential second term for former President Donald J. Trump, according to a report from The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

On October 20, approximately 3 million Kurds are set to head to the polls to elect their representatives in the sixth legislative elections in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (KRI). The stakes are high in these elections, as the outcomes may reshape the governance map of the Region and influence political dynamics within both the KRI and Iraq.

Growing Concerns Over US Presidential Election

Despite the importance of the local elections, many Kurdish officials and citizens are increasingly focused on the upcoming US presidential election in November. They are questioning which candidate would be better for the Kurdish people—Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris or her Republican opponent, former President Donald J. Trump. The report stated that the winner could have substantial implications for the future of Iraq’s Kurdish population and their hard-won autonomy in Iraqi Kurdistan, particularly in light of the planned withdrawal of US military forces from Iraq by 2026.

At the request of the Kurdistan Regional Government, the Iraqi government has agreed to allow a residual US force to remain at Hareer base in Erbil beyond 2026 to counter terrorism and support the US mission in Syria. However, there are concerns that if Trump wins the election, he would abruptly withdraw troops and be less inclined to maintain a US logistical support base in the Kurdistan Region. This potential scenario would be consequential for Kurds, who have historically depended on US support to navigate the challenging geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, where central authorities have often sought to undermine their autonomy and suppress their national aspirations.

Complex Dynamics of US-Kurdish Relations

For Iraq’s Kurds, US foreign policy in the Middle East has brought both gains and setbacks. The report said that the fickle nature of US foreign policy has frequently placed Kurds in precarious positions, with their interests sometimes sacrificed for broader strategic goals.

The complexity in US-Kurdish relations has been particularly evident under Republican administrations. Significant geopolitical shifts for the Kurds have often occurred during these presidencies, including the 1970 Kurdish autonomy agreement, the 1991 uprising that led to Kurdish self-governance, and the 2003 military intervention that resulted in the ousting of Saddam Hussein. However, the report noted that these administrations have also overseen significant setbacks, including the collapse of the Kurdish revolution in 1975 and the crushing of the 1991 uprising despite its initial success.

A pivotal moment in US-Kurdish relations occurred in October 2017, when Iraqi security forces, supported by pro-Iranian Shia groups armed with US weaponry, launched a fierce offensive against Kurdish positions following the Kurdish independence referendum. Based on the report, the US State Department, reflecting Trump administration policy, described the military actions as an essential “reassertion of federal authority” within Iraq. The assault forced Kurdish forces to surrender nearly 40% of their previously controlled territories, critically weakening their political, economic, and diplomatic standing.

Divergent Views Among Kurdish Parties

The report said that Kurdish officials' preferences regarding a potential Trump or Harris presidency vary, often reflecting the broader geopolitical landscape and the strategic alliances of neighboring countries. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) hold distinct views that highlight their strategic visions for advancing the Kurdish cause.

The KDP, which controls the Kurdistan Regional Government, views Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy as “a potential catalyst” for upheaval in the Middle East that could create new opportunities for Kurds. The report indicated that despite setbacks during Trump’s presidency, Kurdish officials, particularly in the KDP, appreciated their access to administration officials and advisors. Conversely, the PUK is more cautious and sees stability under Harris, reflecting better relations with the current Iraqi government and Iran.

Unpredictability vs. Stability: The Kurdish Future

In a region marked by instability, a consistent US foreign policy could provide Iraq’s Kurdish population with “a reassuring sense of certainty.” According to the report, “this could empower the Kurds to navigate the challenging dynamics of the region, where their autonomy is often subject or vulnerable to the fluctuating political terrain and actions of their neighbors.”

The report concluded that prioritizing the conservation of hard-fought political gains over the possibility of gains from the unpredictability associated with a Trump administration leads to the assessment that a Harris presidency would be “a surer bet for Iraq’s Kurds.”

Disclaimer: The views presented by the author do not necessarily reflect the official standpoint of Shafaq News Agency.