Shafaq News

Hours after Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein announced on Saturday that Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada had agreed to controls on its weapons, the Iran-aligned faction called his account "inaccurate" and denied endorsing or signing any position on its arsenal. The group said it remained committed only to a separate "sovereignty agreement" it had signed with three other factions, the ruling Coordination Framework and Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi.

The exchange exposes the central flaw in Baghdad's effort to bring weapons under state control. The government is tallying agreements, and the factions say those agreements leave their weapons where they are. Washington has increasingly tied its pressure on Baghdad to visible progress before al-Zaidi's June 30, 2027 deadline. The two groups furthest from any understanding, Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, are also the ones most closely bound to Tehran, so a renewed US-Iran war could settle the matter before Baghdad does.

Most of Iraq's Iran-aligned factions run brigades inside the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a state-funded, mostly Shiite umbrella formed in 2014 to fight ISIS, while keeping their own chains of command. Their political wings and allies are estimated to hold roughly 60 to 70 of parliament's 329 seats, and several sit within the Coordination Framework, the Shiite alliance that nominated al-Zaidi and dominates government. Kataib Hezbollah's political wing, the Hoqooq Movement, holds six seats. Al-Nujaba has no registered political wing at all.

Al-Zaidi's plan began on October 1, a day after the US-led Coalition ended its military mission in Iraq. It opened with a 90-day de-escalation period in which factions halt attacks in exchange for assurances they would not face US strikes. Weapons handovers are meant to follow and conclude by the end of June 2027. A Framework committee of Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri, former prime ministers Nouri al-Maliki and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and Islamic Supreme Council leader Humam Hamoudi handles the talks.

A Count That Keeps Changing

Official tallies have shifted every time an official has spoken. In Washington, Hussein told reporters that three of seven negotiating factions had accepted the plan. Al-Zaidi later said five had agreed and three had already surrendered weapons, without naming them. On Saturday, Hussein spoke of understandings with four factions: Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada had accepted weapons controls, he said, while talks continued with al-Nujaba and Kataib Hezbollah.

Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada's denial came within the day. Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, another faction, said last week it had not handed over its weapons and would stay neutral unless Iraqi territory was used to attack Iran. Framework leaders have deliberately described the process as "regulating" weapons rather than disarmament, a word chosen to soften faction resistance. Critics argue the formula would legalize the arsenals it claims to control.

Ramadan al-Badran, a Washington-based political analyst, told Shafaq News that the Framework negotiates on the government's behalf but holds no decisive authority over the factions, despite carrying political responsibility for backing them since their founding. That leaves it acting as a broker between the groups and the prime minister, and some factions, he said, do not consider themselves bound by any deal with the government. The committee has submitted proposals to al-Zaidi, who has yet to act on them, possibly because he is unsure Washington would accept them and wary of committing Iraq to groups the United States may target.

Al-Zaidi has also opened his own channel. A source familiar with the committee's work said on November 3 that his one-on-one meetings with leaders of holdout groups had frustrated members, including al-Amiri, who feared the parallel talks could backfire.

Mukhtar al-Mousawi, a lawmaker from the Badr bloc, told Shafaq News the talks had not reached a dead end and that al-Amiri was personally negotiating to absorb the factions into the army, the police and the PMF, though some groups were seeking privileges within state institutions in return.

Hassan Shaker al-Kaabi, another Badr official, said the dispute concerned mechanisms and timing, not principle, and called the expectation of ending the file overnight unrealistic. Badr's support has limits, however. On Sunday, its parliamentary bloc rejected what it called "American dictates" after Hussein disclosed that Washington had formally asked Baghdad to close all but two border crossings with Iran.

Pressure On Two Fronts

A government source close to al-Zaidi told Shafaq News on Thursday that the talks had reached a near-deadlock because factions still refused to surrender their weapons, warning that the escalating rhetoric could spill into the streets. The rhetoric has since turned personal. Only in the first week of November, Kataib Hezbollah security official Abu Mujahid al-Assaf attacked the government and Framework leaders over oil sales contracts with the UAE's ADNOC, demanded a copy of the committee's agreement, and confirmed that the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" had halted operations inside the country until further notice. In addition, after al-Zaidi cancelled three leases at Mosul International Airport held by companies linked to armed groups, Kataib Hezbollah urged Iraq's Integrity Commission to investigate the wealth of the prime minister's brother, Hassan al-Zaidi. Also this month, the security forces south of Baghdad arrested three PMF members transporting 35 rockets.

Political sources told Shafaq News that US Chargé d'Affaires Steven Fagin warned Iraqi officials that Washington could impose sanctions and treat Iraq as a state sponsor of terrorism unless Baghdad showed concrete progress. He cited a lack of practical steps and an attempted drone attack on the US Embassy.

Two days later, according to informed sources, President Donald Trump told al-Zaidi by phone that Washington would strike the factions and their leaders if they joined any new war in support of Iran, and that further delay could lead the United States to reassess its backing for his government. Neither side disclosed those details. Al-Zaidi's office said only that he had assured Trump Iraqi territory would not serve as a launchpad for attacks on neighboring states before he met US envoy Tom Barrack.

Al-Badran said Baghdad informed Washington of the June 2027 date without the United States agreeing to it as binding. “What Washington wants is visible progress toward turning the factions into security forces inside official institutions.”

Emad al-Musafer, an analyst close to the Framework, described the period before the deadline as one of mutual wariness. “The factions fear the United States or Israel will strike inside Iraq, while the government wants assurances that Iraqi territory will not be used against neighboring countries,” he said, adding that for the factions, guarantees remain the price of any handover.

The Nearer Deadline

Tehran's recent rhetoric has given the holdouts further reason to wait. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei last week ordered military commanders to respond immediately to any threat and praised allied factions in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories, calling for the "unity of arenas" strategy that coordinates pressure on Israel and the United States across those fronts. Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani said Resistance Front commanders had declared their "absolute loyalty" to Khamenei and were implementing his directive for responses without geographic limits.

Ali al-Fatlawi, a spokesman for Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, told Shafaq News earlier that if Iraqi territory were repeatedly used against Iran, the decision would pass to a "higher leadership of the resistance." Al-Badran also warned that some factions could enter a regional war under the banner of "religious duty."

The timetable that matters most may therefore end well before June. The 90-day de-escalation period expires around the turn of the year, and Washington has warned that faction participation in any renewed war in support of Iran could trigger US strikes on the groups and their leaders. Al-Zaidi can keep adding names to his list of understandings. The two holdout groups most capable of drawing Iraq deeper into such a conflict have signed none of them, while Tehran's regional allies were simultaneously being urged to respond without geographic limits.

Read more: Iran calls for a response without borders; Iraq's armed factions set their own terms

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.