Shafaq News – Baghdad/Washington

Iraqi economists see no advantage for Baghdad in filling any resulting supply gaps, amid rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela.

“It’s not financially viable for Iraq to replace Venezuela in the US market,” economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi wrote in a Facebook post. He explained that Basrah Heavy crude trades at roughly $4 less per barrel than Basrah Medium, and transporting it to the US adds $3.50 in shipping and insurance costs. “The margin just doesn’t justify it.”

He also pointed to Iraq’s production limits under OPEC+, which restrict any meaningful increase in output. “Asia remains the more practical market—shorter distances, better prices, and reliable demand,” he said.

On Thursday, both Basrah grades declined despite broader gains in global oil prices. Basrah Heavy slipped to $56.42 per barrel, while Basrah Medium fell to $58.97.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that military action against Venezuela remains a possibility, as Washington steps up its pressure campaign against President Nicolás Maduro and tightens enforcement of oil sanctions.

In an interview with NBC News, Trump confirmed that the US would continue seizing sanctioned oil tankers. When asked whether regime change was the goal, he responded, “He [Maduro] knows exactly what I want,” without elaborating.