Shafaq News- Baghdad

Barclays has maintained its forecast for Brent crude at an average of $100 per barrel in 2026, warning that continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are increasing the risk of further price spikes and disrupting Iraqi and Gulf oil exports.

According to Reuters, the bank said the ongoing closure of the strait has removed around 14 million barrels per day (bpd) from global markets, including supplies from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.

Read more: Iraq’s oil bottleneck: Abundance trapped by dependency

Barclays said roughly 20% of global energy supplies had passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the outbreak of the conflict, adding that oil inventory indicators now point to a supply deficit of between 6 million and 8 million bpd.

The bank also warned that reopening the strait would not quickly resolve supply shortages because global inventories remain significantly lower than previous years, while US stockpiles are approaching their lowest levels since 2020.

Brent crude was trading near $105 per barrel amid continued uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and the closure of the strategic waterway, a critical route for Iraqi and Gulf oil exports.