Shafaq News/ Iranian-backed Iraqi armed factions are unlikely to participate directly in the Israel-Hamas war as long as it is solely led by the Palestinian militant group, amid a split in the decision to target US military bases in Iraq and Syria among these same factions, commanders of Iranian-backed armed groups told Al-Monitor.
Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah on Wednesday announced the formation of what Hamas calls the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation Support Room to “supervise” Iraqi armed factions' support of Hamas. The short statement released on a media network linked to Kataib Hezbollah did not deliver further details, but one of its commanders told Al-Monitor that only three Iraqi armed factions joined the operations room, including Asaib Ahl al-Haq, the second-most powerful Iraqi armed faction, and the Badr Organization, the oldest Iranian-backed Iraqi armed faction.
“Implementing direct or indirect military operations is still a matter of disagreement between the leaders of the three factions until this moment,” the commander said.
However, military bases hosting US forces in northern and western Iraq and northeastern Syria have faced almost daily attacks with drones and rockets since then. Jaafar al-Husseini, spokesperson for Kataib Hezbollah, said in a televised interview that "the resistance in Iraq achieved its first attacks … and will continue at a higher pace."
“The Americans are essential partners in killing the people of Gaza and therefore they must bear the consequences,” he said.
The Pentagon revealed Tuesday that at least 24 coalition personnel had been injured as a result of these attacks, which began Oct. 17. But a US contractor died of a “cardiac episode” last week after sirens sounded at Ain al-Asad base in western Iraq, the Pentagon said.
Last week, IRGC-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a barrage of drones and rockets northward, potentially towards targets in Israel, the Pentagon said.
Despite the attacks, the Pentagon has said it considers the conflict between Israel and Hamas to be contained. Top US officials have said they will not hesitate to use force to defend American personnel in the region.
Al-Monitor and other outlets reported earlier this week that Biden administration officials had asked Israeli counterparts to delay their anticipated invasion of Gaza until a second US aircraft carrier and additional air defense systems could reach the region.
Waiting for Hezbollah
Commanders of a number of Iranian-backed Iraqi armed factions told Al-Monitor that military engagement in Hamas' operation is not currently supported by the majority of Iraqi forces affiliated with the “axis of resistance” — all political factions, armed factions and organizations linked to Iran — and many are angry that Hamas is carrying out operations without coordination with others.
“Direct military participation in this operation [against Israel] is a red line,” said a commander of an armed faction involved in the coordination. “Hamas sought to drag all factions of the resistance axis into the battle and embarrass them, but all are aware of this and they are not ready for this. We will not intervene unless Israel carries out its threat to invade Gaza by land, and then we will be at the command of [Lebanese] Hezbollah, not Hamas."
A senior commander of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) — a government umbrella that covers all the armed factions that fought the Islamic State alongside the Iraqi government, including the Iranian-backed factions — told Al-Monitor that the Iranians also do not want any armed factions linked to them involved in the operation. He noted that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met two weeks ago with the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to discuss the available options.
However, the commanders of the IRGC, including Gen. Esmail Qaani, who is responsible for the Iraqi file, see that “the damage resulting from the participation of any of the factions militarily would be far greater than its benefit," and that the region "will be drawn into an open and uncontrollable war."
The PMU commander said that the Iranians allowed the armed factions in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen to carry out some operations targeting the United States and Israeli forces, “provided that the operations should be low damage scaled. ... None of the factions will exceed this level unless the Israelis step up.”
New rules of engagement
Iraqi commanders claim that the operation by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, targeting south Israel on Oct. 7, took approximately a year and a half of preparation and training in Iran and Lebanon, in addition to creating 16 fake operations rooms in different parts of the world. This was allegedly done in order to “avoid the Mossad’s attention,” Iraqi commanders of armed factions and officials close to Iran told Al-Monitor.
“Iran provided advice, training, and technical and intelligence support, but implementation was limited exclusively to Hamas fighters,” the PMU commander told Al-Monitor. Iran denied direct involvement and the US intelligence assessed that Tehran was surprised by the operation.
However, what's strange is that all the commanders, officials and Western diplomats who talked to Al-Monitor agreed that Iran did not choose the timing for the operation, and that Lebanese Hezbollah itself “was not prepared for it,” according to one of the commanders.
“For some reason that's not yet clear to us. Mohammed al-Deif and a number of Hamas leaders took the decision alone without informing the rest, including their peers,” the commander said. “It was a surprise to everyone. We don’t even know what the next step is or what the alternative plan is to confront the Israeli reactions. Deif embarrassed everyone and put them in front of a fait accompli.”
Many agree that the operation emboldened Hamas and shook the image of the Israeli military. Hamas' operation "broke down the imaginary or physical wall that existed in the minds of the Palestinians and all Arabs and Muslims about the strength and capabilities of Israel," an Iraqi diplomat told Al-Monitor. The attack gave "boosting doses" to all factions of the Iranian-backed armed resistance axis in the region, the diplomat said.
In response, the United States has strengthened its forces deployed in the region to support Israel against Iran’s allies in the region, especially after Israeli threats to invade Gaza by land.
Iraqi officials told Al-Monitor that the Iraqi armed factions have no influence in this area, as Iraq is geographically far from Israel and does not have any relations or common interests with it.
One of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s advisers told Al-Monitor that US officials told the Iraqis “explicitly” that they would intervene militarily on behalf of Israel if Iran or Hezbollah intervened, and that they would target the head of the regime in Syria, the commanders of the armed factions in Iraq and Lebanon, and vital targets in Iran.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Sunday that the Biden administration is prepared to respond if American personnel or armed forces become the target of any such hostilities.
"We don’t want escalation,” Blinken said. “We don’t want to see our forces or our personnel come under fire. But if that happens, we’re ready for it.”
In turn, Hezbollah commanders and the Iranians said that they “will not intervene” unless Israel carries out its threat to invade Gaza. But in that case, in addition to the northern front against Israel, they might open several fronts in other regions including Syria, according to Sudani's adviser.
“We asked the Americans not to provoke Hezbollah and to control the Israelis to prevent the ground invasion, in exchange for us putting pressure on our allies in Lebanon and Iran and our people [the factions] in Iraq,” the adviser said.
“These exchanged threats created a new equation within the current conflict equation. We believe that this has delayed the ground invasion until now, but there are no guarantees of reducing the escalation, especially since Israel is suffering from internal divisions and its prime minister is seeking to achieve victory at all costs," he explained. “The consequences of the operation are much greater than Iraq and its armed factions.”
Risk of US retaliation
The top leaders of the Coordination Framework, the ruling Shiite political alliance that includes representatives of the Iranian-backed armed factions, discussed the latest developments last Saturday.
That meeting — which the prime minister, leaders of the Shiite political forces and armed factions attended — discussed the repercussions of the crisis on the Iraqi and regional situation, the challenges that the government currently faces, the options to help the Palestinians and the consequences of any Iraqi armed factions being involved in the operation, directly or indirectly, an attendee told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
“Sudani had to be honest with them [the attendees] about the reality of the situation. If any of the commanders were targeted by drones, they would blame the government for not protecting them,” the prime minister's adviser said.
“We told them that the seriousness of the situation now lies in the fact that the rules of engagement have changed and that any of the groups' military participation will give the Americans and Israelis justification to attack them and put pressure on the government in one way or another," he noted.
“But we know that the key is now in the hands of Israel and no one else. If Israel invades Gaza, Hezbollah, the Iranians and the Iraqi armed factions will intervene and the gates of hell will open for everyone,” he concluded.