Shafaq News

The Middle East is once again on edge, and Iraq finds itself uncomfortably positioned between Iran and Israel as the two regional powers trade unusually sharp warnings.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz escalated the rhetoric with a message to Tehran — “Our long arm will reach Tehran again with even greater power, and this time personally to you too” — a direct threat to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reinforced that stance, stressing that Israel remains determined to neutralize Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

Iran has answered with uncompromising rhetoric of its own. Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, promised a “harsh response” to any aggression, warning that Israel would face “an even harder slap in the face” than during the previous 12-day confrontation. Tehran insists it is in “unprecedented readiness” and prepared to defend its territory decisively.

The warnings underscore a grim reality: a new confrontation is not distant or hypothetical. Both powers are openly posturing and preparing for escalation, and Iraq, situated at the crossroads of these tensions, faces the prospect of becoming a corridor—or worse, a battlefield.

Danger Corridor Opens

Speaking to Shafaq News, Saeed Shawrdi, a political analyst specializing in Iranian affairs, argued that Tehran sees the current escalation as a response to ongoing US and Israeli provocations. “Washington and Tel Aviv started a 12 day war and continue to issue threats,” he said, describing Iran’s posture as a reaction to what it views as an existential danger.

He added that references to a “devastating war” are not rhetorical; Iran demonstrated in the previous confrontation its capacity to strike the United States and Israel, and today it is in a state of “unprecedented readiness.”

In the past few months, Tehran has intensified efforts to address vulnerabilities exposed during the 12 day war. Reports indicated that Iran has upgraded its air defense networks, expanded radar coverage to monitor broader airspace, reinforced missile command and control systems, and deployed advanced drone and missile interception technologies.

Additionally, Tehran has improved coordination between its conventional forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), while investing in cyber defenses to protect critical infrastructure and military systems - steps aimed to reduce the gaps that previously allowed Israeli airstrikes to reach sensitive Iranian targets with relative ease.

Shawrdi warned that any future conflict could be extensive. Israel, he contends, has already used the airspace of multiple countries, including Iraq, to strike inside Iran, violating sovereignty in Tehran’s eyes.

Allowing Israel to operate from these spaces, he argued, would draw those states directly into the conflict, raising the risk of destabilization inside Iraq.

Read more: War of Isolation: US–led pressure collides with Iran’s push to reinforce influence

Factions Defy State?

Iraq’s territory, particularly its airspace, is at the center of this calculus. Each round of regional tension has tested Baghdad’s neutrality, and each time the margin for maneuver has grown smaller.

Baghdad is squeezed between its strategic relationship with Washington, its historical ties with Tehran, and the influence of domestic armed factions aligned with Iran. Trying to stay neutral has become a delicate balancing act performed under increasing pressure.

Kadhim Al-Fartousi, spokesperson for Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, one of the country’s prominent armed factions, stressed that Iraq must not become a passageway for attacks against Iran.

“Our position is firm, but any action in the field must follow Iraq’s national interest first,” he said, noting that Iraq’s lack of a credible deterrent — from modern air defenses to reliable radar networks — leaves the country exposed to threats from both Israel and the United States. In his view, danger is unavoidable unless Iraq strengthens its ability to protect its own sovereignty.

Read more: No peace vs. not our war: How Iran-Israel conflict divides Iraqi youth

These statements align with comments issued by Iranian-aligned factions during the 12-day conflict. Nearly all factions addressed the Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani directly or indirectly, urging him to resist American pressure and prevent further violations of Iraqi airspace.

Asaib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais Al-Khazali, demanded that Iraq acquire air defense systems and stop relying on US-controlled aerial oversight, implying that Washington is obstructing Iraq’s right to self-defense.

While these factions have previously stopped short of declaring immediate military retaliation, their language suggested that they now view Israeli aggression on Iran as a direct threat to Iraq, raising question if this is yet the clearest indication that the Iranian concept of a “Unity of Fronts” — where aligned groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen operate collectively — may be shifting from deterrent doctrine to active strategy?

Read more: Iran-backed Iraqi factions signal escalation and unity following Israeli strikes on Iran

Neutrality Must Win

Former parliamentarian Mohammed Al-Shammari, a member of Iraq’s Security and Defense Committee, described the current tensions as a media-driven war carrying subtle messages of escalation.

He recalled the 12-day confrontation between Iran and Israel, during which Iraq became a corridor for Iranian missiles and Israeli aircraft. He then credited Al-Sudani for sustaining Iraq’s neutrality, noting that Iranian-aligned factions refrained from launching retaliatory strikes on Israel.

“This illustrates the government’s ability to exercise control over internal actors,” he remarked, underscoring that as long as Iran faces danger, Iraq faces danger as well — further signaling the need for careful diplomacy.

Meanwhile, security analyst Ahmed Al-Sharifi characterized the looming confrontation as a “zero-sum game,” in which each side views its survival as threatened, prompting both to consider removing the other.

“Iraq lacks the institutional capacity to prevent armed factions from taking action on Iran’s behalf,” he added, noting that this leaves the country vulnerable to deeper involvement in regional conflict.

He argued that preventing external powers from using Iraq’s territory or airspace is central to protecting national sovereignty, stressing that lessons from past confrontations show that restraint and centralized control can help avoid pulling Iraq into direct conflict.

The fragility of Iraq’s position mirrors its strategic importance. Any miscalculation could place Baghdad on the frontline, yet careful navigation can preserve Iraq’s neutrality and provide a buffer against broader escalation.

Read more: Countdown to a wider war: Why Iraq is the most vulnerable link in regional escalation

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.