Shafaq News– Washington

The United States may launch military strikes against Iran if President Donald Trump decides that Tehran has crossed his red line on killing protesters, Paolo Von Schirach, president of the Global Policy Institute, told Shafaq News on Tuesday.

The protests that began in December 2025 after the Iranian rial fell to a record low of about 1.45 million to the US dollar –triggering sharp increases in prices and inflation– have killed at least 640 people, and over 10,700 have been detained, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

Speaking to Shafaq News, Von Schirach explained, "The security forces in Iran are killing people… and arresting them," although Trump warned Tehran against doing so. “So he could say: I told you not to do it, you did it, and therefore, I'm going to take action."

Since the beginning of the protests in Iran, the US president has been warning of military options targeting Tehran's security apparatus, though no final decision has been taken. He has also announced a 25 percent tariff on any country conducting business with Iran and cancelled all scheduled meetings with Iranian officials, as he announced.

Von Schirach said potential US targets would likely include military installations, industrial sites, and facilities linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). “Washington could also strike at oil infrastructure.”

A full-scale ground invasion remains off the table, he added. "The last thing President Trump wants is to have Americans killed in action on foreign soil. That becomes a political problem for him."

The more fundamental question, he suggested, is strategic intent. "Is it going to be just for show? Or with the intention to really damage the regime… and somehow facilitate a real insurrection?" However, a single strike may not settle the matter. "If they hit Iran, but the Iranian government continues the repression,” Von Schirach added, “they hit again."

Forecasting Trump's actions, though, is difficult. Von Schirach pointed to a pattern of threats not always followed through, such as about Ukraine, “when he told [Russian President Vladimir] Putin: either you come up with something —I give you ten days— if not, there will be consequences. And then nothing happens.”

What is certain, Von Schirach warned, is that any US strike —however limited— would put American forces in the region at risk, particularly in Iraq.

Top Iranian officials, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, repeatedly warned that in the event of a US attack, all American military centers, bases, and ships in the region will be “legitimate targets.”

Although Iran's conventional strength is diminished, Von Schirach noted, that does not make US action any more predictable. “I would not rule out by any means some kind of military action. How significant? I don't know. A little bit or a lot."

"This president is not predictable."

Read more: Iran’s protests between economic crisis and political contestation

For Shafaq News, Mostafa Hashem, Washington, DC.