Shafaq News

With Hamas announcing its conditional approval to engage in talks based on US President Donald Trump’s plan, including a ceasefire, hostage release, and the handover of Gaza’s administration to an independent Palestinian body, fresh questions are emerging over the future of the regional conflict.

While some interpret the agreement as a potential step toward de-escalation, many analysts argue that the end of the Gaza war could mark not peace, but a dangerous pivot toward a broader regional confrontation. Many increasingly point to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq as potential flashpoints in what may be an evolving, multi-front conflict.

Turning the Conflict Toward Tehran

From Jerusalem, Israeli affairs expert and historian Hussein al-Deek warned that a Gaza truce does not signal the end of war, “it could mark the beginning of a more perilous phase."

Speaking to Shafaq News, al-Deek argued that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely seek to prolong his political survival by “engineering new fronts,” noting that he had already "instrumentalized the Gaza war over the past two years to consolidate his grip on power."

According to al-Deek, a new strategic understanding is forming among Israel, the US, and European powers to redirect confrontation toward Iran. “There is a growing consensus to contain Iran, dismantle its nuclear and missile programs, and sever its regional supply lines,” he said.

For Tel Aviv, he added, “Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen are peripheral arenas — the core threat is Tehran. Israel sees regime change in Iran as the most efficient route to disable its regional proxies.”

He predicted that Israel would use the Gaza ceasefire as a diplomatic window to build international momentum against Tehran — especially following the failure of the 12-day war in June and the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Escalation Risks in Lebanon and Iraq

International relations scholar Firas Elias described Hamas’s acceptance of the Trump plan as a “strategic turning point” that could push Israel to open new fronts, particularly in Lebanon and Iraq.

“There’s an organic link between the theaters of conflict,” Elias told Shafaq News, adding that “Israel may see value in shifting confrontation to other arenas, especially amid sustained tensions with Hezbollah.”

He pointed to recent Iranian diplomatic movements in Beirut and Baghdad as indicators of looming escalation. “Tehran is updating its military doctrine, expanding cyberwarfare capabilities, and recalibrating its proxies — signs that the next round of clashes may erupt first in Lebanon and potentially spill into Iraq.”

Elias concluded that “the end of active hostilities in Gaza may not be a resolution, but a prelude to more expansive conflicts across the Middle East.”

US Strategy and Israeli Leverage

Habib al-Hadi, an Oman-based researcher in international relations, argued that the US is seeking to entrench itself as the dominant power in the region, with Israel acting as its political and military proxy.

Speaking to Shafaq News, al-Hadi suggested the Gaza agreement may serve as groundwork for a larger confrontation between Israel and Iran, warning that such a shift would “have severe repercussions for the entire region.”

He cast doubt on the sustainability of the ceasefire, describing it as “a tactical pause rather than a durable solution.”

“What appears to be calm may in fact be strategic repositioning — a prelude to conflict on a new front.”

“Fragile Agreement,” Political Cover

From Moscow, Assef Melhem, Director of the JSM Research Center, voiced skepticism over the motives behind Hamas’s approval of the Trump plan. He argued that the move aimed to deflect international pressure and shift responsibility to Arab mediators and sponsors.

Speaking to Shafaq News, Melhem expressed concern that “Israel will exploit the agreement to expand its influence, while Arab states will push to restore Gaza to the Palestinian Authority — all without meaningful leverage over either Israel or the US”

He warned that Netanyahu could weaponize the agreement as a political shield while intensifying pressure on Iran, leveraging global support for sanctions and unresolved doubts about Tehran’s nuclear program.

Melhem stressed that Trump’s proposal will not resolve the core of the Palestinian issue, as Israel continues to reject the establishment of a Palestinian state. “This leaves the door wide open for a wider regional conflict — particularly with the Iranian file still unresolved and susceptible to escalation at any time.”

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.