Shafaq News- Washington

The United States’ main concern in Iraq is the possibility of the country becoming “a subordinate state of Iran,” former Pentagon official and Near East South Asia Center for Security Studies associate professor David Des Roches told Shafaq News on Monday, warning that such a trajectory could turn Iraq into “basically an Arab province of Iran with a UN seat.”

Iraq’s Ties with Tehran

Des Roches described the Iraqi government’s effort to balance relations with Washington and Tehran as “the art of governance,” while arguing that Iraq’s dependence on Iranian electricity gives Tehran continued leverage over Baghdad.

“Iraq should have its own electricity; it should not need to import electricity from any other country,” he said. “If they can keep Iraq from developing its own electricity grid, they'll always have a way to get hard currency, even under American sanctions.”

He also claimed that armed groups aligned with Iran continue to influence Iraqi politics and security decisions. “There are people with guns in Iraq who take orders from Iran,” he remarked, while expressing confidence that Iraq would ultimately preserve its independence. “You cannot keep a nation as great as Iraq subordinate.”

Trump and Regional Policy

Discussing US policy, Des Roches portrayed President Donald Trump as more pragmatic than ideological in his approach to regional issues. He pointed to Trump’s rapid lifting of sanctions on Syria’s new leadership after the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

“I was shocked by how quickly he lifted sanctions,” Des Roches said, explaining that he had expected a gradual easing tied to political benchmarks. “But instead, he's just wiped them all out.”

According to Des Roches, Trump views economic development as beneficial to both the United States and Iraq. “I think President Trump wants to see Iraq succeed,” he added, noting that sanctions could still be reimposed if Iraq’s leadership failed to meet expectations.

Gulf States and the Iran Conflict

Des Roches said Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries denied US and Israeli forces access to bases and overflight routes during military operations targeting Iran. “If we had been able to launch from bases in the GCC, we could have dropped twice as much ordnance on Iran,” he explained.

Tehran, he argued, sees Dubai’s economic model as a challenge. “Why is this place prosperous? Why is this a global center of learning, of culture, of commerce, and we're not?” he said, describing what he believes is Iran’s perspective. He added that Tehran seeks “control” over neighboring countries, calling it “the action of a conqueror, not a neighbor.”

Washington and Tel Aviv

Des Roches rejected suggestions that Israel requires US approval before launching military operations, citing previous Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Tunisia as examples of unilateral action based on Israeli calculations.

“When Israel sees a security interest, they don't wait for a green light from the United States,” he said.

Still, he argued that Washington and Tel Aviv may diverge politically after achieving their current military goals against Iran. While both countries seek to weaken Iran’s offensive capabilities, Des Roches said the United States prefers political change driven internally by Iranians themselves rather than externally imposed regime change.

For Shafaq News, Mostafa Hashem, Washington, DC.