Shafaq News- Washington

A direct strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor is unlikely to trigger a nuclear disaster, a political expert told Shafaq News on Monday, though attacks on the country’s electricity network could still inflict widespread hardship on civilians.

According to Professor Paolo von Schirach, head of the Global Policy Institute at Bay Atlantic University, the US military objectives in Iran could be achieved without hitting the reactor itself, by targeting conventional power plants or the country’s transmission and distribution lines. “Operations like these won’t lead to a nuclear catastrophe, but they could significantly impact the Iranian population,” he noted.

The choice of targets presents a clear dilemma for Washington, he pointed out, adding that US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stressed that the goal is to pressure Iran’s regime, “not its people,” further constraining options for military planners.

Observing that the 48-hour deadline Trump issued for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains ambiguous, von Schirach remarked that it is difficult to gauge how serious the timeline is, especially since the strait has not been fully closed. “We have seen him reverse his position frequently regarding this crisis and others,” he added.

On the financial front, von Schirach revealed that the US administration's request for a $200 billion supplemental defense budget is a major addition to the nearly $1 trillion defense allocation, pointing out that the Pentagon has already depleted much of its stock of advanced missiles and smart munitions.

“Politically, this is complex. While most Republicans support the President, the majority of Democrats and, crucially, a majority of Independents oppose him,” von Schirach explained, underlining that the administration faces the challenge of justifying massive military spending to taxpayers.

With US midterm elections approaching in November 2026, von Schirach said President Donald Trump has increasingly framed Iran as a threat to regional stability and US interests, pointing to its long-range missile capabilities that could reach American bases in the Indian Ocean and parts of Western Europe.

For Shafaq News, Mostafa Hashem, Washington, D.C.